Kaktus.media has gathered opinions from experts about possible changes in the currency market in 2026.
Forecast for the Som Exchange Rate
According to economists from the Eurasian Development Bank, in 2026, the som exchange rate may fluctuate within the range of 87-90 soms per dollar. Experts do not expect significant changes in the value of the national currency.In their opinion, the recovery of import volumes may lead to an increase in demand for foreign currency, which will create pressure on the som exchange rate. However, the influx of remittances from abroad will help mitigate this impact and support exchange rate stability.
The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan, as usual, does not provide specific forecasts regarding the som's exchange rate against the dollar. The regulator emphasizes that the exchange rate is formed freely in the domestic currency market and is determined by supply and demand.
Various factors influence the balance of supply and demand in the currency market, including the economic situation in the country, the state of the trade balance, inflation expectations, and inflows from labor migrants.
Forecast for the Ruble Exchange Rate
According to forecasts from the Eurasian Development Bank, the average exchange rate of the ruble will be around 94 rubles per dollar in 2026. A moderate weakening of the ruble is expected due to a reduction in the current account surplus against the backdrop of declining oil prices compared to previous years. A decrease in the yield of ruble assets is also anticipated due to falling interest rates, which may exert additional pressure on the ruble.Furthermore, in 2026, the quasi-government sector's requirement to sell 50% of export earnings will continue, creating additional supply of foreign currency in the domestic market.
According to the consensus forecast from Bloomberg, the dollar index (DXY) may decrease by 3% by the end of 2026, as the dollar weakens against the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound due to falling rates from the Federal Reserve. Morgan Stanley expects a minimum dollar index of 94.0 in the first half of 2026, with a possible recovery by the end of the year; Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs predict a further decline in demand for the American currency, while JPMorgan and Citi anticipate a short-term rebound for the dollar (the EUR/USD rate may drop to 1.10), although the overall trend indicates weakness for the DXY around 90.0.
As for the euro, Reuters surveys confirm expectations of its strengthening, although short-term risks remain due to U.S. policy.
