In its Country Report on Climate and Development in Kyrgyzstan, the World Bank predicts that climate change will not have a significant impact on poverty levels. According to the study, vulnerability to climate change will be observed in those regions where high poverty levels intersect with serious climate threats.
Under an optimistic economic growth scenario, the poverty level in the country is expected to rise by only 1.8 - 2.2% by 2030-2040, and by 2050 it will remain at the same level.
The difference in the impact on poverty in urban and rural areas will become more pronounced in 2030 and 2040.
The most vulnerable to climate change will be Talas, where 64% of the population lives in areas with a high flood threat, and 23% in landslide zones. The Kochkor district also faces a serious flood threat (48.63%) under conditions of low consumption levels. In the Toguz-Toro district, high poverty rates coincide with a flood risk of 37.5%.
At the same time, the World Bank notes that job losses in some sectors will be compensated by the creation of new positions in others. "The overall impact of climate change on employment in Kyrgyzstan is likely to be minor, although it will be felt differently across various sectors," the document states.
The largest number of lost jobs is expected in agriculture, construction, and services, which are characterized by high labor intensity.
Agriculture remains the main source of income for rural residents; however, water scarcity threatens about 15,000 jobs.
"Most households in the bottom 20% of income rely on subsistence agriculture, making them particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change," the report states.
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