According to the regulator, in the first half of 2025, the inflation rate in the country remained within target values, which is linked to measures taken under monetary policy.
However, with the onset of the third quarter of 2025, new external factors began to influence inflation, including the rise in global food prices and the increase in the cost of imported fuels and lubricants. In this regard, a baseline inflation forecast was approved, taking into account these changes and their possible consequences.
In the baseline scenario, the NBKR anticipates moderate growth in the economies of key trading partners, persistent inflationary pressure, as well as a trend of rising prices in global commodity markets and high prices for fuels and lubricants. Domestic factors include moderate inflation expectations among both the population and businesses, as well as an increase in domestic consumption.
As for economic growth, the regulator expects that in 2025 the real sector of the economy will develop more actively than on average over the past three years. According to the NBKR, in the third quarter of 2025, there is a positive growth trend supported by high domestic demand, increasing household incomes, active consumer lending, and inflows of remittances.
The projected growth of real GDP for 2025 is approximately 9.5%. The main sectors contributing to this growth include manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, as well as construction, which are demonstrating stable growth due to fiscal policy measures and entrepreneurial activity.
According to the NBKR's forecasts, in 2026, the growth rate of real GDP could reach 9%.
