Economist Arsen Imankulov provided an analysis of the economic results of 2025 for 24.kg, highlighting both positive aspects and potential risks. He noted that the current achievements could serve as a foundation for deep structural reforms in the future.
Photo 24.kg. Economist Arsen Imankulov
1. Record GDP growth: 9–10% for the year and 13.1% in Q1
In the first quarter of 2025, the National Statistical Committee recorded a gross domestic product growth of 13.1%. This sparked discussions in the media, which began to refer to Kyrgyzstan as the new "Asian tiger." From the beginning of the year until November, the country's economy grew by 10%, repeating the record of 2024 and taking leading positions in the EAEU.
Opinion: The rapid growth of the economy is a significant achievement; however, the largest contributions came from the construction sector, re-export, and remittances from labor migrants. These factors may prove to be unsustainable, and there is a likelihood that growth rates will slow down. At the same time, this creates an excellent opportunity for the government to implement necessary structural changes.
2. Energy crisis: emotions versus rational consumption
In the fall of 2025, Kyrgyzstan faced a serious electricity deficit, which affected businesses and government institutions due to low water levels in the Toktogul reservoir.
Photo from the internet. Energy crisis: emotions versus rational consumption Opinion: Initially, the government failed to gain public support due to its actions but focused on clarifying the situation and introducing reasonable restrictions for businesses. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan also confirmed their readiness to supply electricity to Kyrgyzstan during the fall-winter period.
Work is underway to launch small hydropower plants and modernize existing energy facilities, and discussions are ongoing about the construction of a new thermal power plant with a capacity of 500 megawatts.
3. Records in tax revenues: the state is getting richer, but what about us?
For the first time in the history of independent Kyrgyzstan, the tax service fulfilled the annual tax collection plan ahead of schedule, collecting 275 billion soms in 11 months of 2025, instead of the expected 268 billion.
Opinion: The increase in tax revenues is outpacing economic growth, indicating a reduction in the shadow sector. This could lead to a fairer tax system but also increases the tax burden on small businesses and the population.
It is important to remember that the rapid GDP growth is partially due to the exit from the shadow of companies that were previously not accounted for in the statistics.
Arsen Imankulov
4. First issuance of sovereign eurobonds – $700 million for Kyrgyzstan's economy
In May, Kyrgyzstan entered the international financial markets for the first time, issuing sovereign eurobonds and raising $700 million for five years at an annual rate of 7.75%.
Opinion: This step demonstrates investor confidence in the country's economy, as the raised funds come from private investors rather than state creditors.
This opens new opportunities for financing large projects, independent of foreign governments.
5. Construction and mortgage "boom"
Construction became the most dynamically developing sector of Kyrgyzstan's economy in 2025, reflected in new roads, houses, and social facilities.
Photo from the internet. Construction and mortgage "boom" Opinion: The main reason for the growth in construction was state investments in infrastructure and housing. In the first half of 2025, the volume of mortgage loans increased by almost 70%, significantly exceeding growth in neighboring countries.
State investments in construction contribute to the creation of infrastructure, which in turn stimulates economic growth.
6. Secondary US sanctions against Kyrgyz companies and banks – the end of the "golden" era of re-export?
In 2025, the US Department of the Treasury imposed sanctions against several Kyrgyz companies and banks, accusing them of facilitating the circumvention of anti-Russian sanctions. The National Bank and the government are taking steps to lift these sanctions.
Opinion: This event was a significant blow to the country's financial sector. However, thanks to government actions, the situation is stabilizing.
The sanctions affected foreign trade, and exports of goods decreased by 40%, most of which were directed to Russia.
7. Kyrgyzstan in the crypto industry: from outsiders to the TOP-20 global leaders
The volume of cryptocurrency transactions in Kyrgyzstan grew from less than $100 million in 2022 to $9.85 billion in the first half of 2025, representing more than a 160-fold increase. Kyrgyzstan ranked 19th in the Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index.
Opinion: Most of the transactions in the market are related to exchanges and international trade, rather than mass use of cryptocurrencies among the population.
The government is taking steps to legalize crypto assets, reducing barriers for private investors and making the market more transparent.
What to expect in 2026?
Despite impressive economic growth results over the past few years, analysts predict a slowdown to 5-6% per year.
Many factors, such as the impact of construction and the reduction of the shadow economy, may lead to a slowdown in growth. In a negative scenario, this could trigger inflation due to increased government spending. Nevertheless, the government has tools to control inflation and reform the economy.
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