Photo by Financial Times
The annual forecast for 2026 was presented by the Financial Times, covering important aspects of politics, economics, and technology.
According to analysts, the new year will become even more unpredictable, and some overvalued areas, such as technology and finance, will face the need to revise their previous assessments.
The analysis of the political and geopolitical situation is as follows:
- According to FT estimates, Donald Trump may abandon the most aggressive tariff threats under market pressure, inflation, and opposition from trading partners by the end of the year.
- Experts at FT believe that Ukraine's abandonment of the territories of Donbas will only be possible in the event of a military collapse.
- The Democratic Party is likely to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, which will allow it to block Trump's initiatives and initiate investigations.
- Saudi Arabia is unlikely to take steps towards normalizing relations with Israel.
- In Germany, the political "sanitary cordon" around the far-right AfD party will continue.
As for economic and financial forecasts:
- Most central banks are expected to continue lowering interest rates, except for Japan.
- Despite a record trade surplus, the Chinese yuan is not expected to show significant strengthening.
- In the private lending sector, an increase in defaults is possible; however, a systemic financial crisis is not anticipated.
- The price of gold may reach over $5,000 per troy ounce.
- Economic growth rates in Africa may surpass those in Asia for the first time.
In the technology sector, forecasts are as follows:
- The overheating in the artificial intelligence market is likely to begin to decline: major tech companies will maintain their stability, while venture and small companies may incur losses.
- In 2026, a commercially viable quantum computer is unlikely to emerge.
- Humanoid robots will enter the market, but will remain expensive and niche products.
- A song entirely created by artificial intelligence will not be able to top the global charts.
Regarding business and markets:
- According to FT's forecast, Tesla will not be able to regain its positions in the markets of the U.S., Europe, and China.
- Elon Musk will focus on the development of AI and robotaxis rather than traditional car manufacturing.
The editorial notes that last year's forecasts turned out to be extremely inaccurate: out of 20 predictions for 2025, 7 did not come true, marking the worst result in the history of this project. This underscores the difficulty of predicting the future in current conditions.
