- In its latest report on monetary policy, the NBKR presented a forecast for the balance of payments for 2025 and 2026, highlighting a high degree of uncertainty in the external environment and the associated risks to the stability of the external sector.
According to the main forecasts, in 2025, the current account of the balance of payments will remain negative, amounting to 23.2% of GDP. It is expected that the deficit will increase compared to 2024, which will be linked to high import demand, including the implementation of government programs and socio-infrastructure projects, as well as an increase in energy imports in the fourth quarter of 2025 against the backdrop of declining export supplies.
Export and Import Dynamics
The National Bank notes that calculations for exports and imports take into account changes in regional trade, fluctuations in global prices for food products and energy resources, projected volumes of gold supplies, as well as the macroeconomic situation in partner countries.
According to forecasts, goods exports in 2025 will decrease by 34.2% compared to 2024. The NBKR indicates that the record figures of 2024 were caused by a sharp increase in non-monetary gold supplies in the fourth quarter. At the same time, imports are expected to remain at a level close to that of 2024, including consumer, intermediate, and investment goods, as well as energy resources.
Remittances and Services
According to the baseline scenario, the forecast for the balance of secondary income has been revised upward. It is expected that remittances from workers will grow by 18.4%, and the inflow of funds into the public administration sector will increase by 14.8% compared to 2024.
The NBKR expects that the balance of services will have a positive balance due to the volume of services provided exceeding those received. The main factors driving the growth of service exports remain "other services" and "travel."
According to the NBKR, inflows in the financial account will partially offset the current account deficit. Typically, capital inflows are expected from other and direct foreign investments.
Forecasts for 2026 and Associated Risks
For 2026, a current account deficit of 21.3% of GDP is expected, which will be caused by an increase in the negative trade balance and a slight decline in secondary income. The NBKR forecasts an increase in exports by 1.3% and imports by 2.1%, which, according to the regulator's estimates, will worsen the negative balance of the trade balance.
Remittances from workers are expected to decrease by 6.1% compared to 2025 due to expectations of slowing economic growth in Russia and tightening migration legislation.
A separate risk is mentioned regarding insufficient inflow of foreign capital in the financial account to cover the current account deficit, which may require additional financial resources from the NBKR's international reserves.
Among the main risks affecting the forecast, the NBKR highlights:
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