The regulator notes that under current trends, there is a risk that inflation may exceed the upper limit of the medium-term target range.
As stated in the monetary policy report for the third quarter, the following factors influence inflationary processes:
- the rise in food prices;
- increased domestic demand;
- changes in electricity and utility tariffs;
- the increase in imported prices for fuel and lubricants, leading to higher transportation and logistics costs.
The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) assumes that domestic economic factors and tariff policy, especially in the housing and utilities sector, will contribute to further price increases. Additionally, the implementation of various state and private investment projects may enhance effective demand.
According to the regulator, the impact of rising fuel prices will be both direct and indirect—through increased business costs and higher prices for various goods and services. In turn, inflation expectations from both the population and enterprises, as noted by the NBKR, will have a moderate impact on the overall level of inflation.
For 2026, the National Bank plans for the existing inflationary factors to maintain their influence, as well as possible pressure from accelerating inflation in neighboring countries, growing domestic demand, fiscal policies aimed at stimulating the economy, and rising global prices for food and petroleum products.
In such conditions, the monetary policy of the NBKR will focus on gradually returning inflation to the target range in the medium term.
