In an interview for "VES24," Arthur Suleimanov, head of the ethnic policy and conflict studies sector at the Center for Geopolitical Research "Berlek-Unity," noted that the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has entered a new stage.
According to the expert, recent events have exacerbated the global energy crisis and affected the interests of countries outside the region.
Changes in the Situation
The geography of military actions has expanded, and strikes are now being carried out not only on military infrastructure but also on key energy and trade facilities. Israel and the US have attacked significant locations such as the South Pars gas field and Iran's largest port, Bandar Anzali, on the Caspian Sea.
Iran, for its part, has learned to respond effectively to threats by targeting vulnerable military and economic assets of the enemy. In particular, the Ras Laffan LNG center in Qatar and oil and gas companies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE that work with American corporations have been attacked.
On March 18, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the attacks on energy facilities in Middle Eastern countries were not planned and occurred due to threats to Iran's security.
Turkey's energy infrastructures have also found themselves at the center of the conflict. On March 4, a missile was intercepted over Gaziantep, on March 8, a missile entered Turkish airspace but was shot down, and on March 13, alarms went off at the Incirlik base. It is unclear who organized these attacks.
The US clearly intends to control the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 90% of Iranian oil passes. President D. Trump threatens to deploy additional forces to the Middle East to achieve this goal.
Iran, meanwhile, continues to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz and is developing a new legal regime that will come into effect after the conflict, planning cooperation with Oman.
Did Washington plan a protracted war?
Apparently, D. Trump did not expect to "get bogged down" in a protracted conflict with Iran. On one hand, the continuation of military actions would result in significant financial costs for the US, which could negatively impact Trump's political career, as he emphasized the need to reduce spending on military bases and opposed troop involvement in conflicts during his campaign speeches. Currently, the US is dropping bombs on Iran worth billions of dollars and discussing the possibility of a ground operation.
On the other hand, Iran demonstrates confidence in its military-political resilience and readiness to resist, regardless of the resources needed.
According to the expert, the most likely scenario will be Trump's announcement of the US victory over Iran and a shift of attention to Cuba. Although this decision may not be convincing to the international community, Trump has limited options for exiting the current situation.
From the perspective of energy policy, the United States will, as always, try to maximize its benefits from the impending global energy crisis.
