Since the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the world has witnessed a growing crisis in the region.
Expert on Oriental studies Ruslan Suleimanov shares his opinion in an interview with 24.kg about the unclear goals of Trump and Netanyahu, as well as how the consequences of the military operation affect not only the countries of the Middle East.
- What are the real goals of the US and Israel's military operation in Iran?
- Understanding the true goals of the military operation in Iran is a serious task. If we analyze the statements of Trump and his team, their content changes almost daily. It is clear that Israel is more interested in regime change than the US. Trump mentioned creating conditions for such a change, but that does not necessarily imply its implementation.
Trump clearly expected more successful and rapid results, and certainly did not anticipate that Iranian missiles would be aimed at Dubai and Bahrain — those Arab countries whose security is guaranteed by the US.
Ruslan Suleimanov
He clearly did not expect such resistance from Tehran, especially after Khamenei's death. Therefore, the main task for Trump and Netanyahu now is to find an acceptable way out of the situation and determine what can be considered a victory. Trump must announce his success, but what exactly that success will be remains an open question.
- Are airstrikes sufficient for regime change in Iran?
- I believe that even during the 12-day war, it became clear that a single airstrike is not enough to overthrow the regime. Even after the elimination of the Supreme Leader, the regime did not collapse; on the contrary, it united.
Within Iran, there are different political factions — both conservatives and reformers, but now they are all united by one goal — to survive. This issue also concerns ordinary Iranians who seek change, but the safety of themselves and their loved ones comes first.
- How realistic are Trump's plans to involve Iranian Kurds in the fight?
- This is an extremely risky venture. The Kurdish issue affects not only Iran but also neighboring countries. Attempts to activate the Kurds in Iran could negatively impact Turkey and Syria, which is completely unacceptable to both Ankara and Damascus. Furthermore, it could provoke nationalists who, although they do not support the Islamic Republic, advocate for territorial integrity.
Among Iranian Kurds, there is no organized resistance movement — their leaders are either killed, imprisoned, or in exile.
Therefore, it is doubtful who exactly Trump and Netanyahu are counting on in forming a Kurdish militia, and whether they will be able to reach Tehran to overthrow the regime.
- How long can the conflict last, and what would be considered a victory for Trump?
- The duration of the conflict depends on the ultimate goal that Trump sets and what he considers victory. The 12-day war initiated by Israel and supported by the US did not have a clear goal and ended with strikes on nuclear facilities, allowing Trump to announce his triumph. The assassination of Khamenei could have been an achievement, but for Trump, that is not enough.
- How does the pressure from Arab monarchies affect the course of the operation?
- Undoubtedly, Arab countries are putting pressure on Washington. This is confirmed by leaks from Arab sources. For example, the UAE is not interested in having their territory become a target for drones and missiles.
They incur both material and reputational losses. This pressure certainly influences the decisions of Trump and his team, hastening the search for an exit from the operation.
- Who has suffered the most from the conflict, and who benefits from it?
- The main beneficiary of the war is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose ratings are rising amid military actions.
Trump is facing negative consequences: countries with which he has signed multi-billion dollar contracts and guaranteed security are under attack.
Ruslan Suleimanov
As for Russia, it finds itself in a difficult situation. Moscow cannot influence Washington or Tel Aviv and has no military obligations to Tehran. However, this creates an extremely uncomfortable position for Russia, which is forced to watch attacks on its strategic partner.
The only thing Putin can do is send condolences to the Iranian president regarding the assassination of the Supreme Leader, but in his statements, he does not mention either the US or Israel.
Moreover, the conflict entails economic losses: a possible freeze or cessation of joint projects with Iran, such as the North-South transport corridor and the construction of a nuclear power plant.
At the moment, this is in question. In the short term, Russia may gain some benefits, for example, the Americans are distracted by Iran, and oil prices have risen. But in the long term, this could result in serious reputational damage and economic losses.
Ruslan Suleimanov
China is also facing serious challenges, as it is the main buyer of Iranian oil and is currently receiving goods intermittently and at high prices. Therefore, China is trying to act as a mediator to achieve a ceasefire. However, like Russia, China has no military obligations to Iran.
The only thing it can offer is diplomacy. But, unlike Russia, China has never positioned itself as a defender of the Global South and does not emphasize the formation of a new world order, as Moscow does. Therefore, for China, the losses are not as critical as for Russia.
- Is there a connection between the conflict in Iran and the war in Ukraine?
- There is no direct connection, but the situation in Iran distracts resources and attention from Ukraine. This gives the Kremlin the opportunity to continue its actions and promote its interests, as it is not even beneficial for it to introduce a ceasefire.
- How are Central Asian countries reacting to the conflict?
- No one wants to be on the side of the loser. In the early days of the war, it was unclear how the Iranian regime would behave. Given the close relationships of Presidents Tokayev and Mirziyoyev with Trump, they clearly did not want to upset the opinion of the region's main peacemaker.
The invitation of Astana and Tashkent to the Council of the World and numerous joint projects worth billions of dollars determine the choice in favor of who is considered stronger in Central Asia.
Ruslan Suleimanov
Tehran is currently not in a position to be outraged by the silence or insufficient condemnation from Central Asia. The fact that the republics did not join the military actions and do not supply weapons to the US is already significant.
