The inability of the new Ministry of Water Resources to address the water shortage problem is becoming increasingly evident. The primary task of this agency is economic growth, while in the coming years, a severe deficit is possible, affecting even the basic needs of the population. This is not a fabrication, but a real threat that many prefer to ignore. What steps can be taken to mitigate the situation? – this was stated by Bulat Esekin, an international expert and coordinator of the Central Asian platform for water resource management and climate change.
– Many say that water is becoming a critically important resource. However, are real steps being taken to address this problem?
– The Iranian crisis indicates that the situation requires immediate action. In a short period, water reserves in reservoirs and underground sources have dropped to critically low levels. Tehran, home to 10 million people, is on the brink of a water collapse, threatening daily life, the economy, industry, and agriculture. And this is just the beginning: some regions are experiencing droughts, while others are facing floods.
Last year, global water conferences were held at the initiative of the presidents of France and Kazakhstan, which had not taken place for over 50 years. It was previously believed that water issues were local or transboundary in nature; however, this summit demonstrated that global water cycles are disrupted.
– What caused this disruption?
– The main reason is human activity. We have destroyed the soil's ability to retain water, even though it holds more moisture than all the rivers and lakes in the world, which supports fertility and crop yields.
However, plowing, infrastructure construction, and resource development only exacerbate the situation. As a result, there is almost no territory untouched by human activity.
Every year we increase water extraction to meet the growing population. We alter the natural flow of rivers by building dams and reservoirs. In Central Asia, for example, more than 400 reservoirs have already been built, with plans to construct over 200 more.
– The World Bank in its latest report indicated that water scarcity could become one of the four causes of potential military conflict in Central Asia. What factor could trigger this?
– Military conflicts over water have already occurred. If Central Asian countries do not take action soon, the problem will only worsen. Our capacity to respond is limited, and it must be used as effectively as possible. For scientific and expert organizations, these measures are clear.
If the water crisis is caused by human actions—disruption of water flows, destruction of land surfaces, and excessive water extraction—then measures must be aimed at addressing these causes.
Forests play a key role in redirecting precipitation to continents, especially in Central Asia and China, which are far from the oceans. More than 50% of all precipitation reaches there thanks to Eurasian forests, including the Siberian forest belt. This natural mechanism ensures the water security of our countries, and if it is disrupted, it must be restored.
– What priority measures should states take to stop the worsening of the water crisis?
– Minimum steps should include restoring forest and soil ecosystems, as well as halting the destruction of water flows, which many government programs in Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries aim to address.
Just look at Kazakhstan's plans: we still plan to increase irrigated land by two to three times—to two, and potentially up to three million hectares. This implies the construction of new reservoirs, roads, and infrastructure, which will require even more water. Additionally, there are projects for creating water-intensive data centers and expanding industrial production.
In fact, most government programs funded by the budget are aimed at increasing the burden on water resources and ecosystems. Meanwhile, the recommendations from scientific organizations are unequivocal: this burden must be stopped, destructive practices must be halted, and we must shift to restoring water flows and mitigating the consequences of the water crisis. The water crisis is not an abstraction, but a serious threat.
The Illusion of Water Abundance
– More than ten years ago, the government commissioned an analysis of the water sector, conducted by McKinsey.
The results showed that by this decade, Kazakhstan would face a severe water shortage: the volume of available water resources would decrease by about 50%.
This is not about all the water in rivers and lakes, but about available water—the water that the country can use considering transboundary agreements and the capabilities of treatment facilities. According to estimates, the volume of available water is about 24 cubic kilometers per year.
However, the forecast suggests that in the future, less than 12 km³ will be available—half as much. And this is despite the fact that just this year, about 11 km³ of water was directed towards irrigation in the southern regions. In such conditions, there will be a severe shortage of water for industry, domestic needs, and agriculture.
Nevertheless, the entire structure of production and consumption in the country is built as if there is no water shortage. All strategies are still focused on growth: more energy, more agricultural products, and more utilities. But even the water-saving measures enshrined in the new Water Code and actively promoted by the ministry cannot change the situation. The savings are insufficient.
At the same time, Kazakhstan depends on its neighbors, who themselves are experiencing growing water needs. This is not taken into account in our economic strategies and is a key problem.
– Is the adoption of the Water Code and the creation of a new specialized ministry in Kazakhstan a step towards solving the problem or an illusion of control?
– When the creation of a separate agency was discussed, my colleagues and I supported this idea. It is important that all water issues are concentrated in one place, and the new Water Code established stricter rules for resource use.
However, in practice, the old approach prevailed: the focus shifted to the rational use of water rather than its restoration. Measures to restore water flows and forests that replenish rivers and underground water have received insufficient attention.
Today, the new ministry is primarily focused on ensuring water supply to all consumers. This implies drilling new wells and building reservoirs, which does not solve, but rather exacerbates the problem.
Mechanisms are in motion: budgets have been allocated for the construction of reservoirs and canals, but stopping them is extremely difficult. This is only possible in the context of a severe crisis, the signs of which are already visible in neighboring countries. For example, Uzbekistan reports that reservoirs are filling less and less: glaciers are providing less water, evaporation is increasing, and precipitation is not fulfilling its previous function.
In such a situation, alarming signals begin to sound. One of the ministers of Central Asia stated outright that if there is not enough water, no one will pay attention to existing agreements. This concerns not only states—people will also not follow the rules when they have no water for irrigating land and survival.
Balkhash, Ural, Caspian: The Limits of Possibility
– What specific steps should the state take to stop the growth of water-intensive production and prevent disaster?
– Strict measures are necessary. This year, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Water Resources clearly indicated in meetings with akims that people need to be explained that they will have to abandon water-intensive crops—there simply won't be enough water for them. Otherwise, farmers risk being left without water and going bankrupt.
Nevertheless, in large regions of the country, water extraction for rice—one of the most water-intensive crops, requiring 4,000 to 6,000 liters of water per kg—continues. Despite this, Kazakhstan's plans and those of Central Asian countries include an increase in rice production. Last year, its output increased by 100,000 tons, requiring about 500 million cubic meters of water, a significant portion of which was exported. Thus, we are effectively giving away water not for our own needs, but for the profit of individual companies.
The situation is similar in industry: many goods and metals require large volumes of water, but this factor is hardly taken into account. Therefore, restrictions on the production of water-intensive products and a serious analysis of what we produce and consume, including exports and imports, and whether there is enough water for this in the context of rapidly depleting resources, are necessary.
After this, the state will have to make difficult decisions—shutting down water-intensive production and helping people transition to other types of activity. At the moment, however, the authorities are limited to recommendations and meetings, which is already insufficient.
– Where can Kazakhstan now obtain water if nature can no longer cope?
– We can only take water from Balkhash, Ural, and the Caspian Sea. However, all these ecosystems are already in critical condition. The Northern Ural is hanging by a thread, Balkhash is degrading, and the Caspian is rapidly shrinking, partly due to the shallowing of the Volga—one of its main sources.
Therefore, the key task is to restore the land's ability to support local water cycles that nourish rivers and lakes. This should become a top priority. However, in Russia, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan, there is virtually no systematic work in this direction. We have become accustomed to the idea that nature replenishes resources on its own, even though we have destroyed this ability.
The problem is exacerbated by the fact that management is fragmented: some deal with water, others with energy, others with climate, and others with food. This disunity hinders joint actions and understanding of the interconnections between processes. While resources were sufficient, this model worked. Now it does not.
The disaster of the Aral Sea vividly demonstrates that water can be taken up to a certain limit. When this limit is exceeded, the ecosystem is completely destroyed.
It is like a tree: as long as you take the fruits and branches, it lives. But if you reach the roots, it dies, and you lose everything. We have already exceeded the permissible load on nature, which is linked to climate, water, and ecological crises, inevitably followed by social and even military tensions.
Time is Running Out...
– How much time do we have left? Does humanity have the opportunity to prepare, or are we already in countdown mode?
– Just recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change spoke about serious consequences by the end of the century. Climate is an indicator of the planet's health, similar to body temperature in humans. Initially, the timelines began shifting to the middle of the century, then to an earlier period.
Today, independent scientific centers warn that the water crisis may not develop gradually but could hit suddenly, like an avalanche or a storm. And this could happen in the coming years.
We have already seen this in the case of Iran. Scientists clearly understand the scale of the threat, but politicians are not concerned— they have elections, reports, quick victories…
– Can Kazakhstan become not just a participant but an initiator and leader of regional solutions to this important issue?
– Undoubtedly. Currently, Kazakhstan, together with the UN, is preparing a global regional environmental summit scheduled for April 22-24. Various agenda options are being discussed, including climate change, but it has been decided to focus specifically on water as the most pressing issue.
Kazakhstan has proposed to develop its own vision for solving the global water crisis with a focus on Central Asia, transboundary rivers, as well as national and local measures. This is not about declarations, but about concrete actions that can be implemented in practice and that will simultaneously help mitigate climate consequences.
This is a real opportunity for Kazakhstan to attract the attention of the international community and become an initiator of uniting the efforts of Central Asian countries to address water issues, relying on new technologies, knowledge, and experience accumulated worldwide.
