However, it should not be forgotten that the risks of negative impacts on the economy remain significant. Kyrgyzstan is unable to significantly change the situation, as the state of the economy largely depends on global factors and trading partners.
Kaktus.media analyzed the forecasts of international financial institutions and government agencies regarding what 2026 will be like for the country's economy.
Expectations for 2026
According to the draft budget, GDP growth in Kyrgyzstan is expected to reach 8.5% in 2025. In reality, this figure is likely to be even higher, as it has already reached 10.2% by the end of the first 11 months of the current year. The Ministry of Finance predicts that next year, the growth rate of the economy will be 8.6%.According to the department, growth will largely be driven by increased production volumes in the following sectors:
- services - 8.1%;
- construction - 16.6%;
- agriculture - 4.2%;
- industry - 7.5%.
The most optimistic forecasts have come from the Asian Development Bank and the Eurasian Development Bank, which align with the expectations of the Ministry of Finance and the National Bank.
Growth Slowdown Due to Inflationary Pressure
The World Bank predicts that economic growth will continue in 2026. Expectations are based on domestic demand, which will be supported by increased private consumption, investments, and government spending. In the real sector, growth will be driven by increased volumes in industry, construction, and services.“However, we expect a slowdown in economic growth next year due to supply constraints. We predict that this will occur against the backdrop of continuing price increases. We observe this in the inflation of consumer goods, services, and producer prices. The acceleration of real income growth will also play its role. According to our baseline scenario, economic growth will be around 6.5% next year,” noted Bakyt Dubashov, a senior economist at the World Bank.
Kyrgyzstan Will Remain in Leading Positions in the EAEU
The Eurasian Development Bank is the most optimistic regarding Kyrgyzstan's economy. According to the EDB, although GDP growth will slow down, it will remain sufficiently high. High consumer activity will support economic growth longer than previously expected.High rates of consumer lending and positive dynamics of remittances will continue at the beginning of 2026, which will contribute to domestic trade. The investment impulse gained from the state investment program will reflect on the dynamics of the construction sector and manufacturing industries.
External Risks
Bakyt Dubashov, a senior economist at the World Bank, emphasizes that the main risks of worsening the economic situation in 2026 are related to external factors. If they have a negative impact, it will reflect on economic growth through a reduction in foreign trade, a decrease in foreign investments, and a decline in cash inflows.The Eurasian Development Bank also believes that a more significant slowdown in global economic growth than predicted in the baseline scenario will primarily affect Kyrgyzstan's foreign economic activity and may negatively impact the overall growth rate of the economy. Another risk is the possibility of delays in the implementation of planned investment projects.
