In his recent comment for IA "Kabar," ecologist and analyst Baktybek Saipbaev emphasized that the current decrease in water levels at the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Station does not pose a threat for the upcoming autumn-winter period. However, he warned of potential problems that may arise in the future and affect all of Central Asia.
According to the expert, the reduction of water reserves in the Toktogul Reservoir is a natural consequence of years of low water levels, while electricity consumption continues to grow. "The difficulty lies in maintaining the water-energy balance under such conditions. It is important to remember that we have commitments to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan regarding water release during the growing season and for irrigating agricultural lands in the summer," he noted.
At the moment, the water level in the Toktogul Reservoir is sufficient for the winter period. However, if low water levels continue, this could lead to a serious crisis. Numerous international experts are warning of a possible prolonged drought in Central Asia.
Saipbaev emphasizes the need to minimize water releases from the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Station during the winter period. He believes that small energy sources cannot fully solve the problems, as their capabilities are quite limited in winter. "Solar power plants suffer from fog, and wind farms depend on weather conditions," he added.
In this regard, the expert positively assesses the government's plans to build a large thermal power station near the coal deposit of Kara-Keche. "I hope this will help bridge the gap between the growing electricity consumption and its production. Nevertheless, even if the issue of shortages is resolved in the coming years, we will not be able to provide sufficient electricity volumes to support economic growth," he emphasized.
Additionally, Saipbaev considers it important to update projects related to hydrogen and nuclear energy. These sources are not dependent on external factors and can provide significant capacity, which will help conserve water from the Toktogul Reservoir during the winter period.
The expert also reminded about the Kambar-Ata-1 hydropower project, the construction of which has already begun. However, the implementation of this project may take up to 10 years, which could prove to be too long in the face of escalating problems," concluded Baktybek Saipbaev.
