Political assassinations may lead to temporary successes, but they usually end in long-term disaster. This is reflected upon by Palestinian journalist Daoud Kuttab in a column for 'Al Jazeera'.:
The common strategy in wars is to try to eliminate the leaders of the enemy. While such actions can be successful under certain conditions, in the Middle East they often lead to dire consequences.
Eliminating an enemy leader can cause a short-term surge in popularity among the population, especially during wartime. For example, U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu likely feel they are in the spotlight following the alleged assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
However, killing an 86-year-old man who was already planning a transfer of power due to his health issues is not a significant achievement, considering the power of the U.S. and Israel. Moreover, it does not guarantee that the new leadership will take the interests of these countries into account.
Historically, assassinations of political leaders do not lead to peaceful resolutions in the region. They can create space for more radical successors or lead to chaos and violence.
Looking at recent history, one can see that when Israel and the U.S. resorted to a "decapitation" strategy in conflicts, the results were catastrophic. For instance, after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, who was an enemy of Israel, power shifted to pro-Iranian forces and opened the door for their influence in the region.
After the U.S. invasion, Iraq became a bastion of Iranian strategy, allowing Tehran to create a powerful network of groups that threaten the interests of the U.S. and Israel.
Furthermore, the resulting security vacuum led to the emergence of various insurgent groups, the most notorious of which became ISIS, which claimed thousands of lives and triggered mass migration to Europe.
Another example is Hamas. Since the early 2000s, Israel has attempted to eliminate its leaders, and after the assassination of founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and his successor Abdel Aziz Rantisi, Yahya Sinwar took over, who later organized the attack on October 7, 2023.
The situation with Hezbollah is similar. Its former leader Hassan Nasrallah came to power after the assassination of Abbas al-Musawi and was able to transform the organization into a powerful force.
Although two and a half years of war have weakened both groups, Israel has not been able to eradicate the idea of resistance to occupation, and the current lull may only be temporary.
As for Iran, it is unlikely that Khamenei's successor will be as willing to negotiate. During negotiations in Muscat and Geneva, Iran under Khamenei was prepared to make significant concessions on nuclear issues, but the new leadership may not have the capacity to make similar moves.
If Israel and the U.S. continue their campaign and effectively cause the collapse of the Iranian state, the consequences could be unpredictable. Experience shows that a power vacuum in Iran can have devastating effects for U.S. allies.
This raises the question: what exactly do Israel and the U.S. intend to achieve with their "decapitation" strategy in Iran?
For Netanyahu, the elimination of Khamenei could be an important political success. In an election context, which affects his political career and potential prison time for corruption charges, a short-term boost in popularity seems a justified risk. Israeli leaders often do not consider the medium- and long-term consequences of their actions, and society as a whole supports aggressive measures.
For Trump, the situation is less clear. He can boast of the elimination of an elderly, ailing leader far beyond U.S. borders, before an audience weary of military conflicts. In the context of a cost-of-living crisis, he is spending billions of taxpayer dollars on a war against a country that posed no immediate threat, which more and more people in the U.S. perceive as "Israel's war."
Instead of demonstrating strength, Trump may appear weak, as a president involved in an expensive war for the political survival of another leader.
At this point, it is clear that the U.S. does not intend to deploy ground troops. However, in the future, he will have to stop the bombings and withdraw troops, leaving behind chaos, the consequences of which will fall on allies in the region. This may raise questions and dissatisfaction both domestically and among international partners.
We may face yet another military adventure by the U.S. in the Middle East, which will require billions of taxpayer dollars, soldiers' lives, and a loss of international influence, without any real result. One can only hope that Washington will finally understand that assassination strategies and "decapitation" do not work.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.
Daoud Kuttab is an award-winning Palestinian journalist and the author of the book State of Palestine NOW, available on Amazon in multiple languages.
