Analyzing recent events, Jaykhun Ashirov reflects on why the theory of a conspiracy between the USA, Russia, and China following the capture of Nicolás Maduro lacks any basis.
The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by American special forces last Saturday was one of the boldest operations by the USA in recent decades. This lightning-fast action in Caracas shocked not only Latin America but also significantly beyond its borders. Soon, concerns arose that the precedent set by Venezuela could inspire China to take action against Taiwan. Additionally, rumors circulated about a possible conspiracy between Trump, Moscow, and Beijing, whereby the USA was granted the ability to act in the Western Hemisphere in exchange for ignoring Russia's actions in Ukraine and China's in Taiwan.
Despite active discussions of these theories in expert circles and social media, they do not hold up under closer scrutiny.
Why China Will Not Use the "Venezuelan Precedent"
The situation in Venezuela is unlikely to influence China's plans regarding Taiwan. Beijing does not intend to resort to military action against the island for a number of pragmatic reasons. Xi Jinping adheres to a long-term approach, hoping for a change in the political situation in Taiwan by 2028.
The Chinese authorities are confident that international trends support their goals in the area of "national reunification." A reaction to events in Venezuela does not seem likely, as these are completely different situations that require an individual approach.
Moreover, China lacks experience in military operations of this kind. The successful operation in Caracas was made possible by months of intelligence work and the use of forces with extensive experience in conflict zones. The People's Liberation Army of China does not possess such experience.
The circumstances also differ fundamentally: for Beijing, Taiwan is an internal issue, not an international conflict that requires justification in the form of a precedent from the USA.
The "Territory Exchange" Theory Lacks Basis
The assumption that Trump "sold" Ukraine to Russia in exchange for Venezuela falls apart upon the first analysis.
The First Argument: There was no level of control by Russia in Venezuela that would require Moscow's consent for intervention. Maduro was more of a burden for the Kremlin than a valuable asset for exchange.
The Second Argument: The peace plan of the Trump administration for Ukraine includes legislative guarantees of security and extensive assistance in rebuilding the country after the war. This is enshrined in the new US national security strategy. Ukraine is to become a viable state, not be left to its fate.
The Third Argument: Today, Ukraine has one of the most capable armies in the world, professional intelligence services, and a powerful military-industrial complex. This is not a country that can simply be exchanged.
The idea that the USA and Russia will sit down at the negotiating table and divide the world as they did at the Yalta Conference in 1945 also lacks basis. Who, exactly, would they divide it with? With Russia, which could not even capture Donetsk in five years of war (2014-2015, 2022-2026)?
Although the international system established after World War II is currently experiencing a crisis, the present situation is not analogous to that which led to the necessity of the Yalta Agreement. The Russian Federation is not the USSR and does not possess the power to dictate terms.
What Trump's Strategy Really Means
If the "Monroe Doctrine" previously ensured US hegemony in Latin America, now experts joke about the "Donro Doctrine" — named after the current president. It has become even more aggressive.
Trump has already warned Cuba and Colombia that they could be next. The White House stated — FAFO, which in diplomatic terms means: "those who do not comply will get what they deserve."
Trump's national security strategy emphasizes the Western Hemisphere as a priority region. However, this does not imply that the USA will cede Europe to Russia and the Indo-Pacific region to China.
In fact, the strategy asserts the exact opposite. Despite criticism from current European governments, the document clearly states: the USA will not allow hostile forces to dominate Europe. "We cannot afford to ignore Europe — that would be suicide on the path to our goals," the strategy emphasizes.
What Is Really Happening
The operation in Venezuela is not part of a global conspiracy but represents a new approach by the Trump administration to foreign policy, based on spheres of influence and political realism. Washington is restoring its dominance in the region, but this does not mean a renunciation of its global role.
The Venezuelan action was more driven by internal than external political factors. For Republicans in South Florida, an important electoral base, decisive measures against Maduro have long been required. A hardline stance on Venezuela allows Trump to appear convincing on issues of immigration, security, and drug trafficking — key topics for his voters.
Both Moscow and Beijing may use the Venezuelan precedent for propaganda, portraying the USA as a country that does not adhere to international law. However, this is unlikely to change their strategic calculations regarding Ukraine or Taiwan. Each of these conflicts has its own logic and dynamics, independent of events in distant Latin America.
