"From Superpresidency to 'Strong State of Rules'"

Марина Онегина Analytics
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From 'Super-Presidency' to 'Strong State Rules'

How President Tokayev Completes the Architecture of a Just State


The nationwide referendum scheduled for March 15, 2026, will mark an important milestone in the history of Kazakhstan. This is not just a set of amendments, but a radical restructuring of the entire state framework and value system of the country. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has initiated a process that effectively concludes the era of super-presidential governance.

This reform aims to create a balanced system where the primary role is assigned to sustainable political institutions rather than the influence of an individual. The main goal of the changes is the effective distribution of powers among the branches of government and the strengthening of the system of checks and balances. This step illustrates the strategic vision of the country's leadership for long-term stability and progress in Kazakhstan. The transition to a new constitutional model completes a years-long process of reforming the institutional foundation initiated by Tokayev.

President Tokayev's Personal Choice: Dismantling the Super-Presidential Model

Among examples in political history, there are not many cases where an incumbent president, possessing full power, initiates a decentralization process. The 2026 reform in Kazakhstan serves as such a precedent. This is not merely an update of the text of the fundamental law, but a principled rejection of the super-presidential model. The country is transitioning to a presidential republic with a strong parliament, marking the completion of the transformation of institutional foundations.

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is making a strategic decision to redistribute powers to create a system of checks and balances that will ensure the long-term sustainability of Kazakhstan, making state mechanisms independent of specific individuals. The new model envisions a strong president who remains the guarantor of the course, combined with an influential parliament and a government accountable to elected representatives.

A key element of this transformation will be the establishment of a unicameral parliament, named the National Kurultai. Unlike previous structures, this body is endowed with real powers to influence the executive branch. A significant innovation is the right to express a vote of no confidence in the government. Moreover, deputies will be able to initiate the dismissal of any minister who fails to comply with the laws. If two-thirds of the votes support this decision, it becomes mandatory for the president to execute.

The changes also affect personnel policy. Now, the consent of the Kurultai is required not only for the appointment of the prime minister but also for the approval of the vice president, judges of the Constitutional Court, and members of the Central Election Commission. The president can no longer make these decisions alone and is obliged to consult with party factions, making the process of forming power more transparent.

In the new structure, special attention is paid to succession and stability. The introduction of the vice presidency and the clear establishment of the order of succession (vice president, then chairman of the Kurultai, then prime minister) eliminates legal loopholes and risks of political instability. Thus, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is creating a legal framework in which the interests of the people and the stability of institutions take precedence over personal ambitions, transforming Kazakhstan into a modern state with effective democratic mechanisms.
The Kurultai as a New Center of Responsibility and Control for the People
The establishment of the National Kurultai as a unicameral legislative body represents a transition to a more dynamic and responsible model of governance. The abolition of the bicameral structure removes bureaucratic barriers and makes the coordination of legislative proposals more efficient. The new parliament, consisting of 145 deputies, is capable of quickly responding to the challenges and needs of society.
However, the main significance of the reform lies not only in accelerating the legislative process but also in expanding oversight functions. The Kurultai ceases to be merely an organ approving initiatives of the executive branch. In the new conditions, it becomes a full-fledged center of political responsibility. An important tool here is the right of deputies to initiate the resignation of any minister in case of violations of the law or inefficiency. If two-thirds vote for the resignation, this decision becomes mandatory.
Legislative power also gains significant economic leverage. The approval of budget reports from the government and the Supreme Audit Chamber becomes a serious test. If the report is not approved, it leads to a vote of no confidence in the entire cabinet, ensuring maximum accountability of the government.
The strengthening of the role of the Kurultai is also related to its personnel powers. The parliament gains the right to participate in the formation of independent bodies such as the Constitutional Court and the Central Election Commission, which were previously under almost complete presidential control. Thus, through the Kurultai, the principle of popular sovereignty is realized: the government is now accountable not only to the president but also to representatives of the people, making the governance system more stable and protected from errors.
The Development of Multi-Party System as a Strengthening of Democracy
The third block of constitutional reform is focused on renewing representative democracy through the development of a multi-party system. The transition to a fully proportional electoral system will serve as a powerful stimulus for strengthening political parties. In this new model, parties cease to be mere tools during elections and become permanent institutions responsible for shaping state policy and representing the interests of various social groups.
The proportional voting system based on party lists will ensure adequate representation of the entire political spectrum in the Kurultai. This will create conditions for fair competition of ideas, where the success of a party will depend on its ability to offer society a viable strategy. Such an approach compels political organizations to improve their internal operations and build long-term relationships with voters.
The institutionalization of political pluralism through constitutional norms transforms multi-partyism into a fundamental element of the state structure. The strengthening of the role of party factions in the Kurultai and their participation in consultations during the appointment of key officials will make the political process more inclusive. Diverse opinions now have a legal and effective platform, minimizing the risks of power monopolization.
Guarantees of Stability and Transparent Power Transition
Ensuring political stability during leadership changes is a critical aspect for a developing state. The 2026 reform offers a systematic solution to this issue through the introduction of the vice presidency and a clear algorithm for the transfer of power. This will create a "security corridor" that minimizes the risks of a power vacuum.
A key element of the new structure will be the vice presidency, which will be appointed by the head of state with the mandatory consent of the Kurultai. This position implies that in the event of the president's early resignation, his powers will pass to the vice president, who will become the acting head of state. It is important to note that the new Constitution establishes strict timelines for holding extraordinary elections, excluding prolonged periods of interim governance.
A transparent hierarchy of succession—vice president, chairman of the Kurultai, and prime minister—eliminates the possibility of behind-the-scenes disputes over leadership. Each participant in the political process, as well as international partners, gains a clear understanding of the functioning of the state apparatus in emergency situations. This builds trust in state institutions and supports investment attractiveness.
The institutionalization of this process excludes any attempts at unconstitutional power grabs. Thus, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is implementing a mechanism that shifts the issue of succession from the realm of personal agreements to the domain of clearly functioning legal norms, which is a significant contribution to the long-term stability of Kazakhstan.
Completion of the Architecture of a "Just Kazakhstan"
The referendum on March 15, 2026, will not only be a political event but also the final chord in a large-scale process of restructuring the state framework. Kazakhstan is drawing a line under a period of institutional uncertainty and completing the transition to the architecture of a Just Kazakhstan. While the previous power vertical largely relied on personal authority, Tokayev's new constitutional model emphasizes sustainable institutions and the rule of law.
Based on the new reality, referred to by experts as the Third Republic, lies the recognition of the people as the sole source of power. This is not just a declaration, but the foundation for creating professional and accountable structures to society. The draft of the new Constitution effectively enshrines a new social contract, where the state undertakes obligations to serve the interests of citizens through transparent control mechanisms.
A significant element in completing this architecture is the change in development priorities. The state officially proclaims a transition from resource dependence to a focus on human capital. Education, science, and innovation become central priorities that will define the country's direction for many years to come. Thus, institutional transformation is complemented by value modernization, turning Kazakhstan into a modern rule-of-law state.
The adoption of the new Constitution marks the final formation of a mature political system capable of effectively operating in the face of global challenges. The completion of the transformation of institutional foundations creates the necessary legal conditions for long-term stability. This is a logical result of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's course towards creating a state where justice, legality, and order are the main principles governing all branches of power.

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