The Board of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) has decided to raise the key interest rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 12% effective February 23, 2026. This change took effect immediately, as stated in the bank's official announcement.
According to the NBKR, the external economic climate remains complex and unstable. There is a slowdown in price growth for essential goods in global food markets; however, inflation in the countries that are Kyrgyzstan's main trading partners remains high. Given the significant share of imports in the consumer basket, domestic prices remain susceptible to fluctuations from external factors. Price dynamics will depend on the stability of global supply chains and trade flows, which are threatened by geopolitical tensions and the fragmentation of the global economy. Therefore, a cautious approach in monetary policy is necessary to ensure price stability in the country.
As of February 13, 2026, inflation in the Kyrgyz Republic was 1.8%, with an annual figure of 9.6%. Although the overall price dynamics align with expectations, there is heterogeneity in various components of the consumer basket. Prices for food products are rising moderately due to the stabilization of prices for a number of products. However, services and non-food goods continue to show high rates of price growth due to external conditions and internal demand factors.
The economy of Kyrgyzstan continues to demonstrate high growth rates. In January 2026, the real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 9%. An acceleration in activity is observed in construction and the services sector. Investments in fixed capital remain at a high level, contributing to the development of infrastructure projects. The growth of real incomes and an increase in consumer lending also support domestic demand, creating additional inflationary impulses.
Monetary conditions continue to support the purchasing power of the national currency, which is important for ensuring price stability within the target range of 5-7% in the medium term. The interbank money market is functioning stably, with BIR rates at the lower end of the NBKR's interest corridor, reflecting the balance of supply and demand for short-term monetary resources in conditions of excess liquidity in the banking system. The domestic currency market also remains stable, with currency interventions conducted only to smooth out sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate.
The banking services sector demonstrates resilience: the volume of the banks' deposit base grew by 46.2% in 2025, reaching 865.9 billion soms, indicating trust in the banking system and an increase in the saving behavior of the population. The loan portfolio of commercial banks increased by 48.8%, amounting to 507.0 billion soms, reflecting activity in the real sector of the economy.
Medium-term inflation will depend on the balance of external and internal factors. Given the inflationary risks associated with fiscal policy and the growth of consumer demand, it is necessary to tighten monetary conditions to slow down inflation. In this regard, the NBKR's interest rate has been raised to 12%.
The NBKR emphasizes the importance of a balanced approach to monetary policy and continues to analyze both internal and external factors affecting inflation. In the event of risks to price stability, the National Bank is ready to consider adjustments to its monetary policy.
