The main factors driving GDP growth were the commodity production sectors, services, and net taxes on products.
The leading industries contributing to economic growth in the first two months of 2026 were the chemical industry (growth of 3.1 times) and the pharmaceutical industry (growth of 1.7 times). There is also an increase in the production of rubber and plastic products, construction materials, as well as in printing and vehicles (by 42.4 percent).
The analysis of the data was conducted based on information from the National Statistical Committee. However, it is worth noting that alternative sources of information about the state of the economy of Kyrgyzstan are absent, which may limit the understanding of the real situation.
Gross Domestic Product
When analyzing GDP, various aspects are taken into account, such as prices, output volumes in the sector, budget revenues, and government expenditures. As a country with a high dependence on imports, Kyrgyzstan's economic indicators may fluctuate depending on exchange rates. Our review uses official data in soms.
In the structure of GDP, the share of the services sector was 49.9 percent, commodity production was 31.1 percent, and net taxes on products were 19 percent.
Industrial Sector
The total value of industrial production in January-February 2026 amounted to 147 billion 813 million soms, which means a growth of 15.5 percent compared to the previous year. Unlike 2025, this growth was made possible by an increase in production volumes:
Positive dynamics are also observed in areas such as postal and courier services, where growth was 28.5 percent. Construction also increased by 23.2 percent.
The hotel and restaurant services sector grew by 13.2 percent, wholesale and retail trade by 11.4 percent, and freight transportation by 9.4 percent.
It is worth noting that electricity production volumes decreased by 14.1 percent.
In the water supply and waste processing sectors, there was a growth of 9.9 percent, mainly related to improvements in water collection and distribution.
Investments in Fixed Capital
The volume of investments in fixed capital increased by 8.4 percent compared to January-February 2025, thanks to a growth in domestic funding sources by 11.5 percent. However, external investments decreased by 26.3 percent since the beginning of the year.
The total amount of capital investments since the beginning of 2026 amounted to 17 billion 851.2 million soms.
The majority of investments in January-February 2026 (over 80 percent) were directed towards the construction of housing and manufacturing, as well as projects in the fields of education, mining, and energy.
Economic Forecasts
According to the latest forecast from the World Bank, the expected economic growth of Kyrgyzstan will be 6.5 percent. At the same time, analysts from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) make a more optimistic forecast of 9.3 percent. These estimates align with the opinions of other experts.
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The GDP of Kyrgyzstan will exceed forecasts and reach $32 billion by 2030
The main factors contributing to economic growth are high domestic demand and significant government investments. The government has allocated substantial funds for infrastructure development: 21 percent of external loans go to the transport sector, and nearly 20 percent to energy.
The construction sector and the services sector also continue to demonstrate high growth rates.
In 2026, the monetary policy of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic will be tight to curb inflation. The established discount rate at 12 percent indicates an intention to cool the overheated consumer market.
This leads to an increase in the cost of loans for businesses and citizens, which limits the volume of new borrowings but serves as a necessary tool for ensuring financial stability.
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Kyrgyzstan will face a significant rise in food prices in 2026
It is forecasted that the inflation rate in 2026 will fluctuate between 6.9 and 9.4 percent. The main factors driving price increases are the planned rise in utility tariffs and excise taxes on excise goods. The high rate of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic is aimed at minimizing the risks of "unwinding" inflation, keeping price growth within target guidelines.
The national currency, the som, demonstrates stability. In March 2026, the official exchange rate was 87.45 soms per dollar, which is a local maximum for recent months. The som is supported by stable remittances and high demand for gold — the country's main export commodity.
In addition, the National Bank conducts regular interventions to support the national currency, having sold $546.55 million on the foreign exchange market since the beginning of 2026.
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The war in Iran. Its causes and consequences for Kyrgyzstan
External risks are associated with geopolitical instability and threats of secondary sanctions. Trade restrictions and uncertainties in global supply chains may negatively affect the country's re-export potential.
The economy of Kyrgyzstan remains sensitive to changes in trade relations with key partners — China and the EAEU countries.
Overall, experts note that the economy of Kyrgyzstan began 2026 in a phase of active expansion. Nevertheless, long-term success will depend on the implementation of structural reforms. Strengthening the private sector, addressing energy issues, and diversifying export directions will be key factors in maintaining economic stability in the coming years.
