Since the beginning of 2026, the world has found itself on the brink of a global war. The question of whether it will be possible to avoid the escalation of the conflict and how it will affect Kyrgyzstan is becoming increasingly relevant. Logistics expert Andrey Belov warned in an interview with VB.KG that the main confrontation will unfold in the Middle East, and the logistical consequences of military actions in the Strait of Hormuz require careful analysis.
According to Belov, Iran plays a key role in transporting European goods to Kyrgyzstan through the port of Bandar Abbas. All shipments from Turkey also pass through Iranian territory. Although the share of these cargoes in Kyrgyzstan's overall trade volume may not seem critical, any obstacles in freight transportation through Iran could cause serious disruptions in the already established system of road transport.
In the current realities, particular attention should be paid to Caspian routes (Turkmenbashi port – Alyat port – Turkmenbashi port). However, Belov emphasizes that the solution here depends on the throughput capacity of the ports and the condition of the Caspian cargo fleet. The age of the vessels directly affects the quality and cost of maritime transportation.
The specialist also predicts radical changes in the rules of road freight transportation between Kyrgyzstan and neighboring countries such as Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia. The tightening of security measures is becoming important, including monitoring the contents of cargoes and compliance with international sanctions, as well as the use of militarized escorts to protect convoys from potential capture or destruction.
Belov reminds us that in the first one and a half months of 2026, more than 15 vessels were detained in the world's oceans, confirming the existence of threats. Crews were detained, and cargoes were confiscated without sufficient grounds. Examples of the destruction of vessels in the Caribbean under the pretext of national security threats are also not fiction, but reality.
Modern combat operations actively utilize drone technology, and these threats must be taken into account when organizing transportation along the Silk Road in 2026. Belov highlights two key tools for ensuring safety: electronic navigation seals for tracking cargo and militarized escort groups forming convoys.
As an example, he mentions the situation in the Red Sea, where the actions of the Houthis led to an increase in insurance premiums for carriers to 1% of the value of the vessel and cargo, forcing many to change routes to bypass Africa.
Belov concludes that it is time to make responsible and timely decisions regarding the safety of cargo transportation along the "Silk Road." Changes within the country are also directly linked to events in the Middle East, and judging by the latest news, active actions are expected in early March.
