According to a report by the United Nations, the global economic output is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2026. This figure is slightly lower than the forecast for 2025, which was 2.8%, and significantly below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%.
According to the UN News Service, last year the resilience of the global economy to a sharp increase in tariffs in the U.S., supported by stable consumer spending and declining inflation, helped maintain growth rates.
However, serious risks remain: low investment levels and limited budgetary capacities continue to restrain economic activity. The report emphasizes that the partial easing of trade tensions helped minimize disruptions in international trade. At the same time, the impact of increased tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainty is expected to become more pronounced in 2026. Risks remain high, especially in sectors related to the rapid development of artificial intelligence.
“Economic, geopolitical, and technological contradictions are changing the global landscape and creating economic uncertainty,” noted UN Secretary-General António Guterres. “Many developing countries continue to face serious difficulties, and progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals remains out of reach for a significant part of the world.”
Uneven but Stable Growth
The forecast for the U.S. economy in 2026 is 2%, which is higher than 1.9% in 2025, thanks to the easing of monetary and fiscal policy.
In the European Union, economic growth is expected to be 1.3% in 2026 compared to 1.5% in 2025, due to high tariffs from the U.S. and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty restraining exports.
Japan is projected to increase its GDP by 0.9% in 2026, which is also lower compared to 1.2% in 2025.
In the post-Soviet territory, growth is expected to be 2.1% in 2026, which is almost unchanged compared to 2025, despite the negative impact of military actions in Ukraine on the macroeconomy.
East Asia is expected to show growth of 4.4% in 2026, down from 4.9% in 2025. China's GDP will grow by 4.6%, which is also slightly lower than last year. In South Asia, growth will be 5.6%, and in India, it will be 6.6% due to resilient consumption and significant government investments.
Africa is expected to see economic growth of 4% in 2026, which is slightly above the forecast of 3.9% for 2025; however, high levels of debt and climate shocks create serious risks.
The report also states that global trade, despite rising tariffs, showed resilience in 2025, increasing by 3.8%, which exceeded expectations. However, experts predict a slowdown and expect trade growth to be 2.2% in 2026.
Nevertheless, investment growth in most regions remains weak, under pressure from geopolitical tensions and tight fiscal conditions. Monetary easing and targeted fiscal measures support investments in several countries, while the rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies contributes to increased capital expenditures in several major markets.
Experts warn of the uneven distribution of potential benefits from the implementation of artificial intelligence, which could deepen existing structural inequalities.
The document also emphasizes that high prices continue to be a significant global issue, despite slowing inflation. Overall inflation is projected to decrease from 4% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025 and is expected to continue slowing to 3.1% in 2026. However, high prices continue to exert pressure on real incomes.
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