The Social Fund's Budget Will Stabilize by 2028 — Forecast

Марина Онегина Economy
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- According to the medium-term forecast for 2027–2028, the budget of the Social Fund shows signs of stabilization: with an increase in revenues and expenditures, their share in the gross domestic product (GDP) will gradually decrease, while the deficit level will decline to minimal figures.

These conclusions are based on the information presented in the appendix to the law on the budget of the Social Fund.

The law was adopted on January 16, 2026.

Main parameters for 2027–2028

It is projected that the revenues of the Social Fund will amount to 144.2 billion soms in 2027 and 150.5 billion soms in 2028. At the same time, their share in GDP will decrease from 6% in 2027 to 5.4% in 2028, indicating faster economic growth compared to social obligations.

Expenditures of the fund are expected to be 144.1 billion soms in 2027 and 150.4 billion soms in 2028, also decreasing to 5.4% of GDP by the end of the forecast period.

If in 2026 the budget deficit of the Social Fund will amount to 388.1 million soms, then in 2027 it will be reduced to 132.1 million soms, and in 2028 to 82.5 million soms.

The main burden continues to fall on the Pension Fund:


The Mandatory Health Insurance Fund will increase its expenditures from 69.1 billion to 74.7 billion soms in 2027 and 2028, reflecting the rise in healthcare costs.

Budget of the Social Fund of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2026 and forecast for 2027-2028
Name2024 (fact, thousand soms)2025 (revised budget, thousand soms)2026 (draft, thousand soms)2027 (planned period, thousand soms)2028 (planned period, thousand soms)
Total revenues115,241,601.7129,183,671.5137,691,504.7144,185,180.7150,455,214.8
As % of GDP7.67.36.76.05.4
Including:     
Pension Fund104,551,388.2115,864,648.8122,964,445.1128,319,003132,839,684.9
State Accumulation Pension Fund4,782,375.36,333,471.67,214,542.27,875,059.78,987,614.6
Mandatory Health Insurance Fund5,248,941.06,043,157.66,503,418.26,911,898.57,472,258.3
Workers' Health Improvement Fund658,897.2942,393.51,009,099.21,079,219.51,155,657.0
Total expenditures108,063,384.3127,708,873.9137,303,365.2144,053,124.6150,372,697.6
As % of GDP7.17.26.66.05.4
Including:     
Pension Fund97,591,406.9114,087,000.9122,576,305.6128,186,946.9132,757,167.7
State Accumulation Pension Fund4,782,375.36,333,471.67,214,542.27,875,059.78,987,614.6
Mandatory Health Insurance Fund5,045,9516,304,2356,503,418.26,911,898.57,472,258.3
Workers' Health Improvement Fund643,651.1984,166.41,009,099.21,079,219.51,155,657
Surplus/Deficit7,178,217.41,474,797.6388,139.5132,056.182,517.2
GDP1,523,235,8001,779,721,2002,067,019,1002,398,447,3002,779,309,100
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