The incident became the deadliest for civilians since the beginning of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. So far, neither side has claimed responsibility for what happened.
According to an investigation by The New York Times, based on satellite images, social media, and verified videos, the school building was severely damaged as a result of a strike that coincided with an attack on a nearby IRGC naval base.
Official statements reported actions by US forces against maritime targets in the Strait of Hormuz, which may suggest that the US could have struck the school.
In response to a query from The New York Times regarding the incident, the White House referred to spokesperson Caroline Levitt, who stated at a press conference on Wednesday: "To our knowledge — no," in response to a question about US involvement in the airstrike on the school. She added that the Department of Defense is conducting an investigation.
The lack of found weapon fragments and the inaccessibility of the site for foreign journalists hinder the establishment of the exact circumstances of the incident. Iranian health authorities and state media reported that at least 175 people, many of whom were children, died as a result of the strike on the Shajarah Tayyebeh school.
US authorities did not confirm or deny their involvement in the incident for several days. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated on Wednesday that an investigation is underway. At the same time, an Israeli army spokesperson, Nadav Shoshani, told reporters that "at this moment" he knows nothing about any Israeli operations in the area during the strike.
US representatives in their public statements mentioned that on the day of the incident, US aviation was conducting operations in the region where the school is located.
The elementary school is located in the small town of Minab on the southern side of Iran, more than 600 miles from the country's capital, Tehran, but close to the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Since Saturday is considered the beginning of the workweek in Iran, children and teachers were in class at the time of the strike.
Reports indicate that the strike was recorded on social media shortly after 11:30 local time. Analysis of posts and videos made by eyewitnesses within an hour after the attack confirms that the school was hit at the same time as the attack on the naval base. In one of the videos, geolocation specialists confirmed the location, showing several large columns of smoke rising from both areas.
Photos of the school's destruction shortly after the incident were posted by one of the Iranian human rights organizations. In videos published by Iranian media and verified by The New York Times, rescuers can be seen searching for survivors and victims among the rubble.
A driver passing by the entrance to the IRGC base filmed a video clearly showing the IRGC emblems at two entrances and signs for the naval medical command.
Analysis conducted by The New York Times indicates that thick columns of smoke were rising over military infrastructure sites.
To more thoroughly assess the damage and the reasons for the strike, The New York Times commissioned new satellite images from Planet Labs, which confirmed the sequence of events.
Satellite images show that several pinpoint strikes hit at least six IRGC buildings and the school building itself. Four buildings at the naval base were completely destroyed, and two others showed characteristic impact points, indicating high precision of the strikes.
Wes J. Bryant, a national security analyst and former US Air Force officer, examined the new satellite images and noted that all buildings, including the school, were hit by "virtually perfect pinpoint strikes."
Bryant, who criticized the Trump administration, stated that the most likely explanation for what happened is "misidentification of the target," where the military attacked a site without realizing that civilians were inside.
At a press conference on Wednesday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Keen stated that US forces were striking southern Iran at that time. On a map provided by him, it was shown that the area, including Minab, was among the targets in the first 100 hours of the operation, although the city itself was not mentioned.
The general also noted that Israeli forces were mainly operating in the north. He mentioned several US operations against targets in southern and southeastern Iran, without mentioning the presence of Israeli forces.
He added: "In the southern direction, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group continues to apply pressure from the sea along the southeastern coast and strikes at Iran's naval capabilities throughout the Strait."
Satellite images from 2013, analyzed by The New York Times, show that the school building was once part of the IRGC naval base. Roads leading from the base directly connected it to the school. However, by September 2016, according to satellite images, the area was separated, and the school no longer had any connection to the base.
Historical satellite images also confirm that the building had signs of an educational institution, with a sports yard and other recreational areas that developed over time.
Bet Van Shaak, who previously worked at the US State Department and now teaches at Stanford University's Center for Human Rights and International Justice, stated that "given the US intelligence capabilities, they should have known about the presence of a school nearby."
There are also theories that the strike could have been caused by an Iranian missile that went off course. However, The New York Times and other analysts have dismissed this hypothesis, pointing out that a single missile could not have caused such precise damage to multiple buildings at the base.
US authorities continue their investigation. If it is determined that the strike on the Shajarah Tayyebeh school was carried out by US forces, a key question will be whether it was due to an error or if the target was attacked based on outdated intelligence.
Janina Dill, an expert in international humanitarian law from Oxford University, emphasized that parties to the conflict are obligated to "verify the status of the target" before an attack to avoid risks to civilians. Failure to comply with this requirement may be considered a violation of international law.
