The Department of Meteorological and Environmental Analysis presents its forecast for February 2026.
In the western aimags, temperatures this month are expected to be in line with long-term averages. However, in Bayan-Ölgii, Uvs, Khovd, Zavkhan, and the western part of Govi-Altai, precipitation levels will be below normal, while in other regions it will remain within average values.
The chart clearly demonstrates temperature fluctuations and precipitation levels.
At the beginning of February, most regions are forecasted to have temperatures 1–3 °C above long-term averages.
However, at the beginning and middle of the second ten-day period, as well as at the beginning of the third, temperatures may drop by 1–5 °C compared to average figures. A warming trend is expected in the middle and end of the third ten-day period, while during the rest of the month, temperatures will align with long-term averages.
In the middle of the first ten-day period, light snowfalls are predicted in some areas, and precipitation is also expected in the second and early third periods. In the middle of the third ten-day period, snowfalls, strong winds, and blizzards are possible in most regions.
In the Central aimags, the average temperature in February is expected to be below long-term averages in areas such as Bulgan, Selenge, Töv, eastern Khövsgöl, Arkhangai, and northeastern Övörkhangai. At the same time, in other areas, temperatures will be around average levels. Precipitation is also expected to be above long-term averages in most aimags of Khövsgöl, Bulgan, Selenge, Töv, and northeastern Arkhangai, while in other areas, precipitation levels will be normal.
The temperature and precipitation change chart is shown in Figure 8. At the beginning of the month, despite the increase in daytime temperatures, by the end of the first ten days and in the second half of the second decade, temperatures are likely to be 1–5 °C below average values. However, warming is forecasted in the middle and end of the third decade, while during the rest of the time, temperature figures will remain at long-term averages.
Heavy precipitation accompanied by snow and wind is expected at the end of the first ten days, as well as at the beginning and middle of the second and third ten-day periods.
In the eastern aimags, the average temperature in February is expected to be below long-term averages, with precipitation in the southern part of Sukhbaatar close to average levels, while in other areas it will be above average. Figure 9 shows the dynamics of temperature and precipitation. At the beginning of the month, daytime temperatures will be above average; however, by the end of the first ten days, at the beginning and middle of the second decade, as well as at the beginning of the third, a decrease of 1–5 °C compared to long-term averages is predicted.
Temperatures in the middle and end of the third ten-day period are likely to rise, while during the rest of the year, they will align with long-term averages. Snowfalls and strong winds are expected at the end of the first ten-day period, as well as in the middle and end of the second decade and in the middle of the third.
In the Gobi aimags, the average monthly temperature is expected to be below long-term averages in Dundgovi, the northern part of Dornogovi, and Govi-Sumber, while in other areas it will be around average levels. It is expected that precipitation levels in Govi-Sumber will be above average, while in other regions it will remain at normal levels.
At the beginning of February, temperatures in most regions will be 1–4 °C above long-term averages.
However, at the beginning and middle of the second ten-day period, as well as at the beginning of the third, temperatures may drop by 1–3 °C compared to long-term levels, while in the middle of the second ten-day period, as well as in the middle and end of the third ten-day period, an increase in temperature figures is expected, and during the rest of the year, temperatures will remain at average levels.
