As of the end of the week ending January 4, Russia earned an average of $959 million from oil exports per week, the lowest figure since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. This data was collected based on tanker shipping statistics and information from Argus agency.
Compared to early October, oil revenue has decreased by 35%, which is equivalent to about $500 million per week, and relative to early December, the decline was 15%, or nearly $200 million per week.
“The price of Urals, the main grade of exported Russian oil, has fallen by nearly 40% following the introduction of U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil. In early January, Urals was selling for $36.69 per barrel in Baltic ports and $34.82 when shipped via the Black Sea. The Far Eastern ESPO grade, sent to China, dropped to $47.55 per barrel,” the agency notes.
According to Bloomberg, this decline in oil revenue creates additional pressure on the Russian budget. In 2024, a reduction in oil and gas revenues by 2.3 trillion rubles is expected compared to the previous year, and according to estimates by Reuters, in December they fell to 410 billion rubles — the lowest level since August 2020.
In the draft budget for 2026, the Russian government anticipates an increase in oil and gas revenues from 8.6 to 8.9 trillion rubles. However, these calculations are based on a projected average price of Urals at $56 per barrel, which is approximately 60% higher than current prices, Bloomberg reports.
Sergey Alexashenko, former Deputy Minister of Finance and ex-Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, emphasizes that it is unclear what measures the Ministry of Finance can take to compensate for the decline in revenues if low prices persist. He points out that the drop in Russian oil prices is linked to the U.S. sanctions imposed on Rosneft and Lukoil, which account for about half of the country's oil production and exports.
As previously reported by Reuters, citing industry sources, at current prices, oil production and exports at some Russian fields have already become unprofitable. Only those projects that receive tax benefits remain profitable, while companies paying tax at the full rate are losing at least $5 on each barrel sold.
