Since the beginning of 2026, the world has found itself on the brink of a global conflict. What could be the potential consequences for Kyrgyzstan in the event of its emergence? Logistics expert Dmitry Belov shared his opinion with VB.KG that the main confrontation will take place in the Middle East region. He noted that it is extremely important to assess the logistical consequences of military actions in the Strait of Hormuz and their impact on both Kyrgyzstan and Central Asia.
According to Belov, Iran is currently an important transit point for imports from Europe to Kyrgyzstan via the port of Bandar Abbas. Additionally, all cargo flows from Turkey also pass through this country. Although these cargo flows do not constitute a critical share in the structure of Kyrgyzstan's foreign trade, any issues with transportation through Iran could cause significant disruptions in the already established system of road freight transport.
In the current situation, the Caspian routes (Turkmenbashi port – Alyat port – Turkmenbashi port) have gained particular relevance. However, in the expert's opinion, resolving issues related to them depends on the capacity of the ports and the condition of the Caspian cargo fleet. The age of the vessels affects the quality and cost of maritime transport.
Dmitry Belov suggests that the rules for road freight transport along the Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan-Kazakhstan-Russia routes will undergo significant changes. Strengthening security measures becomes important, including monitoring cargo contents, compliance with sanctions, and creating militarized convoys to protect against seizure or destruction of cargo.
The expert also emphasizes that in the first one and a half months of 2026, more than 15 vessels were detained in the world's oceans, and cargo was confiscated without legal grounds. He recalls instances of small vessels being destroyed in the Caribbean under the pretext of threats to U.S. national security, as well as the reality of cargo trucks being destroyed on charges of drug trafficking.
Modern military actions actively utilize drone technologies, which will be taken into account when organizing transport along the Silk Road in 2026. Dmitry Belov highlights two key tools for ensuring security: electronic navigation seals for tracking cargo and militarized escort groups (convoys) consisting of special forces.
As an example, the expert mentions the situation in the Red Sea, where the actions of the Houthis led to a sharp increase in insurance premiums for carriers to 1% of the value of the vessel and cargo, prompting significant changes in routes around Africa.
“Quick and responsible decisions are necessary, especially regarding the security of cargo transport along the Silk Road routes. All changes occurring in the country also depend on events in the Middle East. Based on the latest news, active actions can be expected in early March,” concluded Dmitry Belov in an interview with VB.KG.
