According to a report prepared by Sergey Vakulenko, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Berlin Center, published in the Carnegie Politika project and the publication "Meduza," Venezuela, with oil reserves of about 300 billion barrels, will not be able to serve as a tool for radically lowering global oil prices, as hoped by the U.S.
Vakulenko highlights several reasons why the return of Venezuelan crude to the global market will not produce the expected effect:
Slowed production growth. The expert notes that Venezuela is unable to quickly increase production volumes. Years of underfunding and imposed sanctions have led to a serious deterioration of infrastructure. Restoring production to 1990s levels will require hundreds of billions of dollars and years of work, which excludes the possibility of a rapid impact on the market.
High extraction costs. Most of Venezuela's reserves are located in the Orinoco belt and consist of extra-heavy oil, the extraction and processing of which is significantly more expensive than that of lighter grades. Vakulenko asserts that it is practically impossible to maintain global prices below $50 per barrel based on such oil.
Debt obligations. A significant portion of current production is already contracted to repay debts to China and Russia. This limits the volumes that the U.S. can quickly direct to its refineries, even if it gains full control over the industry.
Technical limitations. The market requires immediate solutions, whereas the Venezuelan project demands long-term investments. In the short term, the increase in supply will amount to only hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, which is insufficient to counteract OPEC+ policies.
In conclusion of his analysis, Vakulenko emphasizes that Venezuelan reserves remain an important strategic reserve for many decades. However, they will not be able to serve as an effective tool for reducing the current high gasoline prices in the U.S.
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