Expected Changes in Gasoline Prices in 2026
According to Mikhail Khachaturyan, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, by the end of 2025, a relative balance is observed in the fuel market, which is reflected in the slowdown of gasoline price growth.He noted that due to the existing export restrictions and the moratorium on the zeroing of the damper, wholesale gasoline prices have been reduced by 5-5.5%, which has positively affected retail prices.
- The increase in gasoline supplies from other countries has also played a role. However, this positive trend does not provide sufficient margin for independent gas stations, leading to their closure. At the beginning of 2026, an increase in excise taxes is expected, as well as a continuation of inflation growth, which will contribute to an increase in both wholesale and retail gasoline prices.
There is a possibility that the existing restrictions will be extended for another six to nine months to support low fuel prices for agricultural producers during the sowing season.
- Thus, it can be assumed that the current trend towards stabilizing gasoline prices in the range of 65-70 kopecks per liter, depending on the region, will continue at least until mid-2026.
What Influences Gasoline and Diesel Prices?
According to the press service of the "AvtoSpetsTsentr" Group, in 2026, fuel prices at Russian gas stations are likely to rise, exceeding the expected inflation rate of 4%. At the beginning of the year, price stabilization is traditionally observed due to seasonal demand reduction.Main factors influencing gasoline price changes:
- government fiscal policy. From January 1, 2026, the VAT rate will increase to 22%, and fuel excise taxes will be indexed;
- the state of the oil refining industry. Accidents at oil refineries and difficulties in equipment supply under sanctions may create a fuel shortage in the domestic market during peak demand periods;
- the damper mechanism - subsidies to oil companies to compensate for the difference between domestic and export prices.
“The rate of fuel price growth may range from 4-5% to 7-8% per year. This means that by the end of the year, the average price of a liter of AI-95 may reach or exceed 70 rubles, while AI-92 will fluctuate between 66-68 rubles per liter. To prevent a large-scale fuel crisis, measures such as extending export restrictions and adjusting damper payments may be considered,” added Khachaturyan.
Dmitry Matveev, the CEO of "My Autoprokata," also highlighted several reasons contributing to the rise in gasoline and diesel prices. In particular, he noted the importance of logistics. Residents of "oil" regions often express dissatisfaction that fuel prices are higher there than in other areas.
- This is related to two main factors. For example, in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, there is no infrastructure for oil refining, so the extracted raw materials are transported to a plant in another region and then returned. These transportation costs certainly affect the final price for consumers. Additionally, in hard-to-reach areas like KhMAO, there is low competition among fuel sellers, which also restrains prices.
