According to the National Bank, the external economic environment is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. While prices for key goods in global food markets are rising more slowly, inflation in the main trading partner countries of the Kyrgyz Republic remains high. Given that a significant share of imports is present in the consumer basket, domestic prices continue to be sensitive to external changes.
The future price dynamics will depend on the resilience of global supply chains and trade flows, which are exposed to risks due to geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation. In such conditions, it is necessary to adhere to a balanced monetary policy to ensure price stability in the country.
Since the beginning of 2026, inflation in Kyrgyzstan has reached 1.8%, while the annual rate is 9.6%. Overall, price dynamics are within expected values, although there is heterogeneity among the main components of the consumer basket. Prices for food products are rising moderately due to the stabilization of prices for certain products; however, in the services and non-food sectors, there is an acceleration in price growth driven by both external and internal demand factors.
The economy of Kyrgyzstan is demonstrating confident growth, with a real GDP increase of 9% in January 2026. An acceleration of activity is noted in the construction and service sectors. Investments in fixed capital remain at a high level, supporting the development of infrastructure projects.
The growth of real incomes and the expansion of consumer lending also contribute to increasing domestic demand, creating an additional inflationary impulse.
Monetary conditions continue to support the purchasing power of the som and contribute to price stability within the target range of 5-7% in the medium term. The interbank money market is functioning stably, with the BIR rate at the lower boundary of the National Bank's interest rate corridor, reflecting the balance of supply and demand for short-term resources in conditions of excess liquidity. The domestic foreign exchange market is also stable, with interventions conducted only to smooth out sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate.
The banking sector shows high resilience. In 2025, the volume of the deposit base increased by 46.2%, reaching 865.9 billion soms, indicating trust in the banking system and active saving behavior among the population. The loan portfolio of commercial banks grew by 48.8% during the same period, amounting to 507.0 billion soms, confirming the activity of the real sector of the economy.
The medium-term inflation trajectory will be determined by the balance of external and internal factors. Considering inflationary risks, including a positive fiscal impulse and rising consumer demand, it is necessary to tighten monetary conditions to create sustainable prerequisites for slowing inflation. In this regard, the key rate of the National Bank has been raised to 12%.
The National Bank adheres to a cautious approach in its monetary policy and continues to analyze both external and internal factors affecting inflation. If risks to price stability are identified, adjustments to monetary policy may be made.
The next meeting of the National Bank's Board regarding the key rate is scheduled for April 27, 2026, as stated in the official announcement.
