Larry Fink, the head of the American financial corporation BlackRock, warned in an interview with the BBC that if the price of oil reaches $150 per barrel, it could become a catalyst for a global recession.
He noted that the situation with Iran, which remains a threat, combined with high oil prices could lead to "serious consequences" for the global economy.
In his exclusive interview, Fink also commented on the debates about the existence of a "bubble" in the field of artificial intelligence, expressing the opinion that new technologies create an excessive flow of university diplomas and a lack of technical education.
BlackRock, which manages assets worth $14 trillion (£10.5 trillion), is one of the largest investors in global companies. The scale of its operations gives Fink a unique perspective for analyzing the state of the global economy.
Recent events in the Middle East have caused significant fluctuations in financial markets as experts try to predict how this will affect energy prices.
Fink believes it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the scale and outcome of the conflict; however, he highlights two possible scenarios. In the case of a peaceful settlement and the restoration of Iran as an acceptable partner, the price of oil could fall below pre-war levels. Otherwise, he says, there may be a period when the price of oil fluctuates above $100, possibly approaching $150, which could trigger a "sharp and severe recession."
The rise in energy prices has led to discussions in the UK about the need to increase domestic oil and gas production. On Tuesday, the industry association Offshore Energies UK warned that without increasing domestic production, the country risks becoming dependent on imports amid global instability.
Fink emphasizes that countries should approach energy policy wisely, utilizing all available resources. He believes that access to affordable energy is key to growth and improving living standards.
"The rise in energy prices is a regressive tax that primarily affects the poor," he added.
Although the UK is already using solar and wind energy, as well as hydrocarbons, Fink believes that if oil prices rise to $150 for three to four years, many countries may accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources.
"Countries should not rely solely on one energy source. Use all available resources and actively seek alternatives," he stressed.
"No similarity to 2007-08."
Some experts note that today’s markets show echoes of the events preceding the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The sharp rise in energy prices and signs of instability in the financial sector are causing concern. BlackRock, in particular, has limited withdrawals from its private credit funds for worried investors.
However, Fink denies the likelihood of a repeat of the 2007-2008 crisis, asserting that modern financial structures are much more protected. "I see no analogies," he says.
He also noted that the problems faced by some funds constitute only a small part of the overall market, and institutional investments remain at a high level.
Fink also dismissed ideas that the growth of investment in artificial intelligence might be exaggerated. "I don't believe we have any bubble," he stated.
"Are there risks of failures in AI? Absolutely, that is possible," he added.
Last year, BlackRock joined a consortium that acquired one of the largest data center service providers, Aligned Data Centres, for $40 billion.
"I believe there is currently a race for technological superiority. If we do not invest actively, China will overtake us. We need to develop our capabilities in artificial intelligence," Fink emphasizes.
In his opinion, the main barrier to the development of AI in the US and Europe is the high cost of energy. While China is making significant investments in solar and nuclear technologies, in Europe, he believes, "there is only talk, but no action," and in the US, more attention needs to be paid to solar energy to ensure cheap energy for AI development.
"Artificial intelligence will create jobs for plumbers and electricians."
In his annual address to shareholders, Fink noted that the boom in artificial intelligence could exacerbate inequality, as only a small number of companies and investors benefit. Nevertheless, in an interview with the BBC, he is confident that AI will create "a huge number of jobs."
He mentioned the potential demand for skilled trades such as electrical work, plumbing, and welding. At the same time, as AI develops, the demand for some office positions may decrease, requiring a rethinking of the necessary professions in a changing society.
"We are too critical of many professions, and perhaps young people should not go into banking or media, but rather develop skills that will be in demand," he added.
Fink also noted that after World War II, a benchmark for higher education was established in the US, which may have led to an oversupply of college students. "We need to find a balance and value professions such as plumbing and electrical work," he is convinced.
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