The administration noted that "the consistently high level of expected global oil reserves in the coming months is putting pressure on crude oil prices," adding that the average annual price may decrease from $69 in 2025 to $58 in 2026.
The agency analyzes "global oil reserves" as the difference between demand and supply in the world market. The increase in production targets by OPEC+ countries has contributed to the growth of global oil reserves. It is also expected that non-OPEC+ countries such as Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina will increase their production both this year and next. This increase in production, along with slower growth in global oil demand, has led to a decline in oil prices since the beginning of 2024.
The ministry emphasized that "the buildup of strategic reserves in China and changes in floating storage have contributed to the increase in reserves in non-OECD countries. One of the factors affecting prices in our forecast has been the replenishment of strategic oil reserves in China. In the context of rising supply and falling crude oil prices, China has increased purchases to boost its strategic reserves. This buildup has, in some sense, become a secondary source of demand for oil," the agency noted.
