When Nicolás Maduro was detained in the U.S. on January 3, opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado stated on television: “The hour of freedom has come.” However, joy soon turned to anxiety when Trump announced that his administration would “govern the country” until a safe and sensible transition of power could occur. This caused fear and confusion both in Venezuela and among expatriates, and Machado's meeting with Trump on Thursday did not bring about significant changes in the situation.
What are the prospects for Venezuelans to achieve freedom? Will the U.S. work towards restoring the popular sovereignty that was suppressed by Maduro, who stole the 2024 election victory from Edmundo González?
Machado previously reminded Americans: “We have an elected president, and we are ready to serve our people.” The Vatican also expressed support, publishing photos of Machado with Pope Leo XIV after a private audience.
However, nearly two weeks after U.S. intervention in Caracas, it became clear that Trump had decided to slow down democratic processes in Venezuela to preserve the regime. Venezuelans elected González with two-thirds of the vote, but Trump seems to be ignoring this mandate.
Even the Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Machado did not convince Trump of her legitimacy. According to the Washington Post, had she refused the award, claiming it belonged to Trump, “she would be the president of Venezuela today.” This fuels rumors that the U.S. forced Machado to leave the country so she would not obstruct the overthrow of Maduro.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the CIA concluded that the Venezuelan opposition is unlikely to withstand the Chavista armed forces. Secretary of State Marco Rubio supported this view, noting that while Machado is “fantastic,” the “immediate reality” is that “most of the opposition is no longer in Venezuela.” The administration is focused on “urgent issues.”
Rubio proposed a three-step plan for Venezuela, which would begin with a “stabilization” phase involving governance by Maduro's former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez. She has not promised to promote a democratic transition, and her political survival is in question due to the influence of figures like Maduro's secret police chief Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López.
As noted by Caracas Chronicles, this has led to a “delay in the transition period.” Machado described her meeting with Trump at the White House as “great,” but there is no evidence that it changed the fundamental dynamics. In an attempt to please Trump, she even handed him her Nobel Prize during her visit on January 15, although the committee clearly stated that the award is not transferable. However, no compliments will change the fact that Trump does not support Machado due to her commitment to the interests of the Venezuelan people rather than his plans for Venezuelan oil.
The opposition in Venezuela should no longer cater to Trump's ambitions. Machado earned the Nobel Prize for organizing the activism of Venezuelans both inside and outside the country, and she needs to replicate this so that the opposition can have a voice in the political process. As one commentator noted, the ability to organize nationwide protests is the “only tool” that Machado has.
However, the challenge is how to mobilize resistance without provoking violence from the secret police and their supporting paramilitary groups. The only demand that can pressure Rodríguez and Rubio while minimizing risk is the release of all political prisoners. This is also the only issue on which Machado and the Trump administration found common ground after the overthrow of Maduro.
Undoubtedly, going out into the streets carries significant risks. But carefully planned, targeted, and coordinated protests can help the opposition regain influence, seize the initiative in the political agenda, and gain support from international leaders beyond Trump. After all, ideologically, Machado has more in common with European leaders like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni than with deal-oriented Trump.
This kinship has its roots. As a devout Catholic, Machado understands that Christian democracy has historically served as the moral and organizational foundation of democratic society in Venezuela. It is no surprise that a leader whose values are closest to her own does not live in the White House but in the Vatican. Earlier this month, Pope Leo called on the international community to “respect the will of the Venezuelan people” and defend human rights.
Machado and Trump, on the other hand, will never find common ground on moral or political issues. Therefore, the Venezuelan opposition leader should return to the strategy that initially brought her international recognition. The time for pro-democratic forces in Venezuela to assert themselves and take an active role in shaping the country’s political future is running out.
