The main factor driving the price increase is the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for up to one-third of global maritime oil supplies and a significant share of liquefied gas. According to Western media, many tankers have suspended operations in anticipation of developments, and insurance companies are revising terms for vessels passing through the Persian Gulf.
According to ICIS expert Ajay Parmar, it is the risk of blocking the strait, rather than the attacks themselves, that contributes to the formation of what is known as a military premium in oil prices. He noted that in the event of prolonged shipping closures, prices could quickly rise to $100 and above.
Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance has announced plans to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, exceeding the previously planned 137,000. However, analysts believe that this volume is insufficient to compensate for a potential shortage in case of serious supply disruptions from the region.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, noted that if the Strait of Hormuz were to be completely closed, oil prices could reach $120-150 per barrel. Even considering alternative routes, such as land pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the market could lose up to 8-10 million barrels per day.
