Photo from the internet. Arkadiy Dubnov
Arkadiy Dubnov, a Russian political scientist, characterized the events as a "top-level half-coup." According to him, in one day, Tashiev and several of his deputies were dismissed, the Border Service was removed from the SCNS's jurisdiction, and a new State Guard Service was established based on the 9th service, which is directly subordinate to the president. There were also personnel changes in the Anti-Terrorism Center and the Cybersecurity Center, which effectively alters the entire security structure of the country.
According to information provided by Dubnov, Tashiev learned of his resignation while undergoing a medical examination in Munich, which he has every two years after heart surgery. In Bishkek, sources claim that this decision may have been made after a tense phone call between the president and the head of the SCNS.
Sadyr Japarov explained his actions as necessary to prevent a split in society and state structures. However, his press secretary later clarified that the tension arose not from Tashiev's actions, but from his entourage, which was calling deputies urging them to "switch to the general's side" and "initiate new presidential elections."
Bekbolot Talgarbekov, one of Tashiev's associates, reported that 75 people, including former prime ministers and deputies, signed an appeal for early elections due to the legal uncertainty that arose after the adoption of the new Constitution in 2021. They believe that disputes over the terms of presidential powers could lead to instability.
Temur Umarov, an expert on Central Asia, noted that there are currently no signs of any "purges" in the country following Tashiev's resignation. Rumors about the detention of his deputy in Bishkek were quickly denied, and President Japarov publicly rejected speculation about a rift between him and Tashiev.
Umarov emphasizes that the president is leaving Tashiev the opportunity for a safe return to the country without conflict, which may be related to the health condition of the former head of the SCNS, who is undergoing treatment in Europe.
In light of these events, Japarov has begun redistributing powers within the security bloc, gradually dismantling the SCNS model built around Tashiev in order to avoid the emergence of a new "power center." The expert states that the president is acting as an institutionalist, regaining control over key management structures for his apparatus and preparing the system for 2027, when the question of his possible extension will become relevant.
Darya Saprynskaya, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, expressed the opinion in an interview with RBC that the current events may be related to preparations for possible early elections: "We should not rush to conclusions. It is obvious that a personnel cleanup is underway, and the question is how far it will go — this is what Kyrgyz society is currently trying to understand."
Stanislav Pritchin from IMEMO RAS emphasized that the SCNS under Tashiev gained significant powers in recent years. "The president decided to take the initiative. The dismantling of the SCNS as the main security bloc and the formation of a new authority is taking place," he noted.
Observers also draw attention to the long-standing political connection between Japarov and Tashiev, which emerged after the events of 2020 when they together facilitated the departure of Sooronbay Jeenbekov. Now this tandem has collapsed. Experts point out that for the first time in five years, Tashiev's influence has become minimal, and his further political fate will depend on his return to the country and his intention to continue the struggle against the current authorities.
