In Kyrgyzstan, discussions about the timing of presidential elections have intensified. Politicians and experts are divided into two camps: some believe that the current president should complete his term, while others advocate for holding elections earlier. Each group has its arguments, but not everyone can clearly justify their positions from a legal standpoint.
Klara Sooronkulova, a former judge of the Constitutional Court, notes: "The presidential elections of 2021 were held under the old rules, and the new edition of the Constitution was adopted on April 11, 2021. In my opinion, new elections should have been held after that, as the powers of the president changed. However, it is not necessary to wait for the end of the current term to hold them."
Felix Kulov emphasizes that "according to constitutional law, regular elections are scheduled for the third Sunday of October in the year the president's term ends." He adds that Japarov's term expires in January 2027, and it is impractical to hold early elections until then.
Thus, the question arises: what serves as the starting point for determining the timing of elections? From the old or new Constitution? From the moment of Sooronbay Jeenbekov's resignation or from when the Jogorku Kenesh approved the new Constitution at Japarov's initiative? From January or April 2021?..
One thing is certain: if the president continues to perform his duties diligently, without complaints, and does not intend to leave office, then early elections make no sense.
On one hand, a documentary film titled "President" has appeared on screens, summarizing Sadyr Japarov's achievements over the past five years and becoming part of a large-scale PR campaign hinting at the possible imminent holding of elections. The president's administration has prepared a hundred photographs illustrating his activities since 2021, which also creates an atmosphere of anticipation for the upcoming vote.
Political experts, both local and international, are actively discussing the reforms and achievements of the current president, forming speculations about his future plans. Discussions about the elections are taking place at various levels and in a wide range of contexts.
On the other hand, so-called "info-gypsies" have emerged, flooding the airwaves with critical materials, which also indicates their awareness of the approaching "great shake-up."
The question of who we will choose remains relevant. The head of the State National Security Committee, Kamchybek Tashiev, posed the question in 2024: "Maybe we should bring back Almazbek Atambayev?" However, Atambayev himself will not be able to participate in the elections due to his criminal record, although his name still evokes hopes among some.
What candidates might the opposition propose? Perhaps someone will be nominated. Time will tell. But who can realistically compete with Japarov now? His five-year rule has been marked by significant economic growth, deep political reforms, and important foreign policy decisions. Thanks to Japarov, border issues have been resolved positively for relations with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
Japarov's record includes a significant event: the nationalization of "Kumtor" and the implementation of a key constitutional reform that established the presidential model of governance. It is up to him to decide when to hold the next elections, and he bears full responsibility for that.
From the perspective of state interests, early elections could be a more rational solution.
Autumn 2023 promises to be eventful for Kyrgyzstan: the country will assume the presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and prepare for an important summit. This will require significant efforts, including coordinating diplomatic positions and ensuring security. At the same time, the World Nomad Games are planned, demanding substantial resources and preparation.
According to established deadlines, the presidential elections are scheduled for January 24, 2027, immediately after these large-scale events. For the country's budget, such a burden could be excessive, especially considering winter risks, such as low turnout due to weather and possible power outages.
Moreover, the strategic aspect plays a key role. Early elections could hinder the opposition from uniting and building a front. In a situation where the current government is strong, it makes sense for Japarov to already appoint early elections for late spring or early summer, allowing the country to enter the autumn period calmly with a confirmed mandate of trust and focus on international projects.
It should be noted that according to the laws, Japarov can hold his position for another 11 years (five of which have already passed). Under the new Constitution, he has the right to independently decide the date of the next elections, and it seems that a pragmatic approach may prevail.
Thus, the question of whether the elections will be held on time or early is not fundamentally important from a legal standpoint, but it holds immense significance in terms of effectiveness. The decision on this matter rests with Sadyr Japarov, who will act in a working order.
