At the beginning of February this year, wholesale fuel prices decreased by more than 1.5%. This occurred against the backdrop of the authorities' decision to extend the partial ban on the export of petroleum products, which, according to experts, helps to retain additional volumes of fuel in the country and reduces the risks of shortages during periods of high demand. Previously, fuel shortages had caused sharp price increases.
Forecasts for price changes in 2026 are currently diverging. Arthur Leer, Vice President of the Association of Exporters and Importers, does not expect sharp jumps in gasoline prices, suggesting that the increase will be gradual and close to the inflation rate, which the authorities predict to be around 4%.
On the other hand, more cautious opinions are also present. Alexey Ivanov, owner of the "Alliance Trax" dealership network, suggests that the price increase could be significantly higher, reaching about 8% by the end of the year. He notes that the market has already reacted to the increase in VAT and excise taxes, which led to a 1.3% rise in fuel prices in the first weeks of the year. Additional risks may arise due to possible disruptions in refinery operations during the spring and summer periods, as well as fluctuations in exchange rates. If refineries operate stably and export restrictions remain in place until mid-year, sharp price jumps can be avoided. However, by the end of 2026, the price of AI-92 gasoline may rise to 66–68 rubles per liter, and AI-95 to 71–73 rubles.
Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund, also believes that keeping price growth within the bounds of inflation will be challenging. According to him, much will depend on the state of the international political situation. A weakening of sanctions pressure could lead to a decrease in costs for oil companies, which in turn would help keep fuel prices stable in the domestic market.
