In 2026, India will assume the presidency of BRICS at a time when multilateral diplomacy is facing an unprecedented crisis since the end of the Cold War. The publication IOL shared expert opinions on the significance of this event.
The Hardline U.S. Policy and the Crisis of Multilateralism
Since the beginning of 2026, the world has witnessed a series of sharp and aggressive moves by the Donald Trump administration that call into question existing international norms and principles of sovereignty.On January 3, American special forces conducted an operation in Caracas, arresting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores on charges of narco-terrorism. Immediately after this, statements emerged regarding the U.S. intention to control Venezuelan oil resources. Just a few days prior, on December 25, 2025, the U.S. attacked alleged ISIS camps in Nigeria, justifying its actions as a means to protect the Christian population from terrorists.
At the same time, the White House raised the issue of "acquiring" Greenland again, citing national security and access to rare earth metals, which led to a deterioration in relations with Denmark, a U.S. NATO ally, including threats of military intervention. In such conditions, many countries of the Global South are beginning to seek alternative international platforms to protect the norms of international law and the principle of sovereign equality.
The Indian Perspective on Trump's "Imperial Turn"
Indian analyst T.K. Arun offers a conceptual framework for understanding changes in international politics. In his articles from late 2025, he characterized Trump's foreign policy as a return to imperial approaches of the 19th century.Arun draws parallels with the presidency of William McKinley, arguing that the current U.S. policy undermines the post-war international order based on treaties and multilateral institutions. He believes that a new model of transactional dominance is emerging, where the emphasis is placed on power, economic pressure, and control over resources.
Venezuela as an Example of New Logic
The logic of power, according to Arun, is vividly manifested in Venezuela. The operation in Caracas, presented as a fight against narco-terrorism, actually marked the beginning of U.S. de facto control over the country's oil exports. This demonstrates a new "imperial" approach, where legal arguments mask strategic interests.Arun also emphasizes the use of economic coercion: threats of imposing tariffs of 500% against countries purchasing Russian oil turn trade into a tool of political pressure.
Africa and the Arctic: Expanding Zones of Pressure
The attacks in Nigeria, although coordinated with local authorities, sparked debates about sovereignty and concerns regarding the expansion of American military presence in Africa under the pretext of combating terrorism. Similarly, U.S. rhetoric surrounding Greenland could undermine trust within NATO if the sovereignty of allies becomes a variable dependent on U.S. interests.Warnings Become Reality
The events of January 2026 confirmed the concerns of the Indian analyst. Despite the "tactical success" in Venezuela, bipartisan initiatives began to emerge in the U.S. Senate aimed at limiting the president's military powers. The strikes in Nigeria resulted in the destruction of terrorists but also intensified debates about the permissibility of foreign intervention. In Europe, statements regarding Greenland sparked a wave of support for Denmark and discussions about a potential crisis in NATO.The Paradox of the Global South
For countries in the Global South, the situation is complicated by the fact that Trump's arguments about combating corruption and terrorism may be perceived as appealing in countries with weak institutions and instability. In such conditions, hard intervention is sometimes seen as a "necessary reboot."However, as Arun emphasizes, such logic is dangerous: by undermining the sovereignty of some countries, it threatens the entire system of international guarantees upon which everyone depends, especially small states.
India and BRICS: The Opportunity for Alternative Leadership
Arun argues that India should position itself as one of the main defenders of a rules-based world order, regardless of the weakening of American leadership. As the largest democracy with traditions of strategic autonomy, India has a unique opportunity for this role.This includes strengthening BRICS as an institution, developing cooperation with Africa and Latin America, and working to overcome internal social and religious divisions. This approach is supported by other Indian experts who call for diversifying foreign relations and reducing dependence on the unpredictable policies of the U.S.
Diplomacy at a Crossroads
The beginning of Trump's second term has placed world diplomacy before a difficult choice: how to protect sovereignty and multilateral norms in a context where the superpower increasingly acts unilaterally. Justifying its actions with security considerations, the U.S. seeks strategic and resource gains.The operations in Venezuela, Nigeria, and the pressure surrounding Greenland confirm this new reality.BRICS+ countries, Global South states, and small powers face a dilemma: to condemn the erosion of international law while taking into account the real balance of power. In the Trump era, diplomacy risks becoming merely a trade where power prevails over multilateral institutions.
Choosing Principles
For Africa and other vulnerable regions, an important response remains internal reforms, combating corruption, and strengthening social cohesion, which helps reduce the risks of external pressure under noble pretenses.In conditions of global uncertainty, ethical and principled leadership becomes particularly valuable. T.K. Arun emphasizes that survival in the new world requires not submission to power, but collective protection of norms that ensure human dignity and sovereignty for all.
