Do you notice how prices for vegetables and fruits are rising, while the usual seasonal price drops are becoming less noticeable? Logistics issues and inflation certainly play a role, but there is another important factor that is not so obvious — climate change. How does it affect prices? We tried to understand by analyzing the situation from melting glaciers to store shelves.
Transition to Drip Irrigation: Survival in Water Scarcity
What does the process of irrigating fields look like in our perception? We imagine powerful streams of water rushing from mountain glaciers to fields through rivers and ditches.
But now, this is being replaced by a different picture. Water no longer rushes and is not visible; instead, numerous black tubes have appeared in the fields, through which drops of water are slowly delivered to the roots of plants, almost without loss.
These two pictures are separated by a chasm created by climate change. Previously, ditches were a symbol of life and prosperity, but now drip irrigation has become a symbol of anxiety and forced expenses. Farmers using new irrigation technologies face additional costs that ultimately fall on our shoulders.
Farmers in Chui Region Strive for Their Own Water Sources
Moving to the western part of Chui Region, we see a contrast between old and new methods. In the village of Panfilov, there are two plots: one with raspberries using drip irrigation, and the other with apple trees being watered in the traditional way.
Kumush-apa, the owner of the apple orchard, shares that problems with irrigation water are becoming increasingly pressing. Now they are considering the possibility of drilling a well.
Her son recounts that during the irrigation season, people line up to access water. When it's time to irrigate, he goes early in the morning to the upper channel, where he is supposed to meet with the murab, clearing the channel of debris and stones. While they irrigate their garden, neighbors eagerly await their turn to direct water to their plots. Water scarcity sometimes leads to conflicts.
“This year, the winter was low in snow, and I’m afraid there won’t be enough water, so we need to drill a well. It will cost about 50-70 thousand soms. I don’t understand how, in a country with such water resources, we can experience a shortage,” says Kumush-apa.
Water Inefficiency: Costs Rise While Areas Remain Unchanged
Kyrgyzstan has significant water resources: there are 1,923 lakes covering a total area of 6,836 square kilometers and more than 3,500 rivers. The longest are the Naryn (535 kilometers), Chu (221 kilometers), and Chatkal (205 kilometers).
However, the glaciers of Central Asia, which provide up to 80% of the runoff, have decreased by 30% over the past decades. This is particularly noticeable for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where irrigated agriculture is under threat.
Climate change experts note that since the beginning of the 20th century, the average annual temperature in Kyrgyzstan has increased by 1.6 degrees. Over the past 46 years (1976-2021), this increase has doubled — to 0.022 degrees per year.
By the middle of the 21st century (2050-2060), the average temperature in Kyrgyzstan could rise by 4.5 degrees.
We analyzed data on water consumption for irrigation and agricultural water supply. The area of irrigated land from 2018 to 2022 has hardly changed: for example, in 2018 it was 1,024.7 thousand hectares, and in 2023 it was 1,024.8 thousand hectares.
Table. Water Use for Irrigation and Agricultural Water Supply
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
4817
4920.7
4942
4986.9
5515.6
We observe a paradox: the area of irrigated land hardly changes, while the amount of water used is increasing. In 2022, its usage increased by 14.5% compared to 2018. Losses amounted to 2.4 billion cubic meters (27% of the total volume of withdrawn water), as water evaporates under the scorching sun without reaching its targets.
The head of the sector for implementing water-saving technologies at the Water Resources Service, Duyshonkul Rysbaev, emphasizes that the state is taking measures to improve the condition of major canals and reservoirs.
“Drip and sprinkler irrigation are being implemented on state fields. Moreover, if private farms unite into cooperatives with a total area of plots of at least 10 hectares, they can receive assistance in installing systems,” says Duyshonkul Rysbaev.
Resource Disconnection: How Small Farms Cope with Water Scarcity
However, the main problem is that small and medium-sized farms dominate in the country. The cost of installing drip irrigation varies depending on the size of the plot, water source, and other factors.
For small plots (20-50 acres), prices start at 30 thousand soms. The smaller the farm, the higher its costs for equipment.
Large farms are less common, but they benefit from cooperating with processors, such as “Eko Urozhay,” which delivered the entire harvest of tomatoes (a record 1,200 centners) for processing. Farmers saved time and resources on selling at markets, which is beneficial for both parties.
For farmers with smaller harvest volumes, the purchase price from processors turns out to be unprofitable.
The director of the Department of Processing Industry and Organic Agriculture, Mukhtar Chynaliev, stated that only 7% of the harvest is processed in the republic, and there are plans to gradually increase this figure. Increasing competition among processors will allow farmers to receive better prices.
From Field to Shelf: The Price of Climate Change
Small and medium-sized businesses in the processing of agricultural products feel the impact of climate change. The head of the company “Samida,” Rakhат Abylgazieva, notes that they are forced to purchase the harvest at prices set by farmers.
Additional costs for new irrigation technologies are already included in the price.
Rakhат Abylgazieva
The enterprise “Tunuk,” engaged in the production of fruits and dried fruits, also faces problems caused by the climate crisis.
“In 2025, due to weather conditions, the plum harvest significantly decreased. When there is a shortage of goods, prices immediately rise, and we were forced to buy plums at twice the usual price. We are completely dependent on farmers,” shares the entrepreneur.
Janara Alghozhoyeva, a partner at “Tunuk,” is involved in collecting and growing medicinal herbs. She adds: “Due to drought or rain, the grass may not sprout or rot. Our business depends on the climate. Installing drip or sprinkler irrigation has become a necessity. Farmers bear the costs of equipment and its installation and cannot work at a loss,” she says.
Thus, the chain has closed: the climate forces farmers to increase costs and raise prices for products. Processors and retail chains also add their markups. When we buy vegetables, fruits, canned goods, and juices, we are essentially paying for the consequences of melting glaciers and low-snow winters.
