Ishenov noted that oil is not limited to the production of gasoline and diesel fuel. According to him, around six thousand different products are created from this resource, including plastics, synthetic materials, fabrics, and components for the aviation and space industries. Thus, oil plays a key role in global industry.
The economist emphasized that the rise in energy resource prices affects not only Kyrgyzstan but also neighboring countries, as well as Europe and the global economy as a whole. This leads to increased prices for goods, changes in logistics processes, and a deterioration in the standard of living for the population.
Forecasting further escalation in this area presents a complex challenge, as significant regional and international players are involved in the conflict, and there is a risk of the confrontation expanding.
According to Ishenov, military actions negatively impact the global economy and ultimately affect people's lives. He believes that 80-90% of conflicts at the global level are somehow related to control over energy resources.
The current tension in the Middle East, particularly the confrontation between the USA, Israel, and Iran, has a noticeable impact on global markets. Special attention is given to the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of all oil supplies on the planet pass.
“Any threats to close the strait immediately reflect on prices. Even hints at possible risks lead to a rise in oil quotes. In the case of partial or complete blockage, price increases will be inevitable,” he added.
Ishenov also emphasized that Kyrgyzstan should develop cooperation with its neighbors and participate more actively in international organizations. “Strengthening ties is necessary, as a significant portion of gasoline is imported from Russia. Maintaining friendly economic relations with this country is extremely important, as events in Russia directly affect oil prices and, consequently, our economy,” he noted.
The economist also expressed hope that stable trade could be established, which would help improve the situation. “However, it is impossible to predict changes in oil prices: they can rise or fall. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare in advance for possible changes. In this regard, there are already mechanisms within the EAEU, including simplified trade agreements and the creation of strategic reserves,” he said.
In the expert's opinion, there is currently no immediate threat of military conflict for Russia, and the situation is not comparable to Ukraine. However, countries are still wary of the possible consequences of military actions, and Russia is unlikely to achieve quick success.
Ishenov noted that the ongoing events are influencing the economies of both Russia and Kyrgyzstan. “At the moment, we do not have a serious crisis, but the existing reserves will only last for a short period: one to two months. Although oil will not disappear completely, its resources are limited,” he concluded.
