The History of Israel's Atomic Project
Unlike well-known projects such as the "Manhattan Project," Israel's nuclear program lacks official confirmation. Its origins date back to the post-war years when the young state sought to ensure its security against Arab neighbors. Under strict secrecy, a nuclear weapons development program was initiated.
After gaining independence in 1948, Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion initiated research for the use of atomic energy for military purposes. In 1956, amid the Suez Crisis, the creation of a nuclear arsenal became a top priority. In 1957, Israel signed a secret agreement with France to build a research nuclear reactor in Dimona with a capacity of 24–70 MW and a plutonium extraction plant, which was completed by 1964. In 1959, Israel also received heavy water under an agreement with Norway, and a special service called LAKAM was established to gather technologies.
By 1960, Israel began reprocessing nuclear fuel, allowing it to produce dozens of kilograms of plutonium annually. In 1965, the first weapon-grade plutonium was likely obtained. Before the Six-Day War in June 1967, the first nuclear warheads were assembled, and tests began on the MD-620 missile, developed jointly with France and known as "Jericho-1".
As early as 1968, the CIA confirmed that Israel had begun serial production of nuclear warheads. By 1973, estimates suggested that Israel possessed about 20 warheads that could be used in the Yom Kippur War. At the same time, a policy of "nuclear ambiguity" was established, under which Israel made no official statements about the existence of nuclear weapons.
In 1979, the Vela incident occurred when an American satellite detected a double flash over the Prince Edward Islands in the Indian Ocean, which typically indicates a nuclear explosion. The islands were under the control of South Africa, which cooperated with Israel in military matters. This event led to speculation that Israel might have conducted a nuclear test.
In 1986, nuclear engineer Mordechai Vanunu provided information about Israel's nuclear program to the Sunday Times, claiming that the country had between 100 and 200 warheads and that it was working on uranium enrichment and tritium production for thermonuclear warheads. Vanunu was later captured by Mossad agents and convicted of treason, but was released on April 21, 2004, and even nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2015.
Modern Nuclear Arsenal of Israel
Today, Israel likely possesses a significant nuclear arsenal, including both free-fall bombs and warheads for cruise and ballistic missiles. Aviation systems allow for long-range capabilities. For example, the Blue Sparrow air-launched ballistic missiles have a range of about 2000 km and can be launched from F-15 aircraft, which, with refueling, can strike targets up to 3000 km away, enabling Israel to hit any country in the region and even beyond.
As for the number of warheads, it is estimated to be at least 100, as the lifespan of warheads can be extended through upgrades to electronics and other components.
The Israeli atomic industry includes a research reactor in Dimona (Negev Nuclear Research Center), which can produce weapon-grade plutonium without international oversight. There are also uranium enrichment facilities, which, according to Vanunu, have been operational since the late 1970s. Uranium ore is mined in the Negev Desert. There is an opinion that in the 1960s and 70s, Israel may have obtained fissile materials from both the USA and South Africa, although there is no direct evidence for this.
Israeli scientists possess a high level of competence in this field, and it is believed that the country can be considered the sixth nuclear power in the world. This means that there are no technological secrets for developers in either the atomic or thermonuclear fields.
Previously, former CIA analyst Ray McGovern expressed in an interview with "Izvestia" that Israel might resort to nuclear weapons if its existence were threatened. He noted that protests from the USA are unlikely to stop Israel from using nuclear force. "Israel will act as it sees fit and expects the USA to support it," he added.
Israel has not signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and has adhered to a policy of nuclear ambiguity since the late 1960s, neither confirming nor denying the existence of its nuclear arsenal. The use of nuclear weapons is considered possible only in the event of a threat to the very existence of the state. Under current conditions, Iran's retaliatory actions do not yet pose such a threat, but there is a risk of misinterpretation of attacks from the Islamic Republic.
No guarantees are provided in this situation, and the only way to avoid escalation of the conflict is to cease it. However, at this time, there are no signs of an end to mutual attacks, and both sides continue to exchange threats and bellicose statements.
