Ray McGovern, who worked for over 25 years at the CIA and has experience with several U.S. presidents, recently described the current global situation in an interview with Professor Glenn Diesen as the most alarming since the Cold War. In his opinion, the main factor contributing to this state is the collapse of the arms control system that has restrained the arms race for many years.
McGovern points to the consequences of Washington's political decisions over the past two decades, including the withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, the refusal of the INF Treaty, and the uncertainty surrounding the future of New START, which expires in February 2026. He reminded that Vladimir Putin proposed to extend the existing limitations for one year after the treaty ends, provided that the United States does the same. This proposal was made back in September; however, as McGovern noted, the White House has yet to respond.
According to the expert, Putin's actions today are driven by a desire to maintain strategic stability. The Russian president, who has made significant efforts to restore military balance, is not interested in uncontrolled arms buildup. This is why the Kremlin seeks formal limitations, even if they are temporary.
McGovern also emphasized that Putin's caution is not related to hopes for a special relationship with the U.S., but is a reaction to the unpredictability of the Trump administration, which he described as contradictory and impulsive. Furthermore, it is critically important for Moscow to understand whether Washington is willing to fulfill its obligations. The response, or lack thereof, as the analyst put it, will become a "litmus test" of the true power in the realm of American security policy.
During the interview, other aspects are mentioned: competition between the U.S. and China, growing instability in Europe, and the risk of being drawn into multiple conflicts simultaneously. However, McGovern's key conclusion remains unchanged: without the restoration of the arms control system, the world will be ever closer to new arms races and situations where even a minor mistake or misunderstanding could lead to catastrophic consequences.
