In its new analysis, QCP Capital points out that Bitcoin and Ethereum have finally broken out of the long-term sideways trend that lasted for most of December. This comes against the backdrop of significant geopolitical events in Venezuela, including the recent arrest of President Nicolás Maduro.
Breaking Barriers After Consolidation
At the beginning of the Asian trading sessions, Bitcoin rose above $92,000, while Ethereum surpassed the $3,100 mark. This movement coincided with a rise in stock indices and a drop in oil prices, triggered by actions from the United States.
QCP Capital emphasizes that the current correlation in the movements of cryptocurrencies and traditional assets may indicate a shift in trading trends. Bullish sentiment is observed at the start of the new year, especially after the end of the tax season and expectations of new cryptocurrency regulations.
The Impact of Venezuela and "Shadow" Reserves
Although many positive expectations are already reflected in prices, the shock from Washington's actions in Venezuela could serve as a short-term catalyst for Bitcoin. Additionally, rumors about potential significant cryptocurrency reserves controlled by Venezuela are being discussed again in the market.
According to market rumors, Venezuela may have substantial "shadow" Bitcoin reserves comparable to the deposits of MicroStrategy. However, analysts from QCP Capital warn that these rumors currently lack confirmation.
If this information is validated, Venezuela could become the largest sovereign holder of Bitcoin, aligning with the country's increasing reliance on cryptocurrencies across various business sectors, including the use of USDT in oil transactions starting in 2024.
Strategic Reserves and Activity in the Options Market
The prospect of including seized Bitcoins in the strategic reserves of the U.S. reduces the likelihood of their forced sale, highlighting the strategic importance of Bitcoin in the context of global competition for its accumulation.
In the options market, there is a rise in bullish sentiment. QCP Capital notes a decrease in put skew across all expiration dates and has recorded over 3,000 call option contracts with a strike price of $100,000, expiring on January 30, 2026.
The strategy of buying call options implies acquiring the right to purchase Bitcoin at a price of $100,000 by the end of January 2026. If the asset price exceeds this level, the option will become profitable. This strategy is based on expectations of asset price growth and allows for leverage with limited risk, with maximum possible losses being only the cost of the option premium.
Additionally, there is significant interest in the straddle strategy, which involves simultaneously buying call and put options with the same strike price, indicating the closing of short positions as Bitcoin rises and increasing the risk of gamma movement in the event of a continued rally.
Maintaining Caution
Despite positive signs, analysts at QCP Capital urge caution. American trading sessions continue to restrain recent gains, and this behavior requires attention until it changes.
The geopolitical situation in Venezuela creates new conditions for the cryptocurrency market, combining traditional politics and digital assets, opening previously unknown opportunities.
Artificial Intelligence Analysis
From a machine analysis perspective, the connection between geopolitical events and cryptocurrency prices often proves to be erroneous. History shows that many Bitcoin movements have been attributed to external factors post factum—from Federal Reserve decisions to military conflicts. A statistical analysis of over 100 such "explanations" over the past five years shows that in 70% of cases, the correlation disappeared within a few trading sessions.
While the macroeconomic logic regarding the disinflationary effect of oil appears convincing, it overlooks an important fact: Bitcoin historically responds weakly to changes in the consumer price index. More significant factors remain dollar liquidity and institutional flows. The hypothesis of Venezuela's "shadow reserves" resembles myths about treasures—sounds appealing but requires more serious evidence than just market rumors.
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