Rumors that Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev may be seeking to take the position of UN Secretary-General are actively discussed both in the country and beyond its borders. This information has not been officially confirmed, but experts believe that the likelihood of such a development cannot be ruled out, writes Azattyq Asia.
Where do the rumors come from?
Talks about Tokayev's possible departure to an international organization began to emerge actively some time ago, especially after his proposal to introduce the position of vice president, which would be appointed by the president and could assume powers in the event of his resignation or death. Official sources in Akorda have denied rumors about Tokayev's potential departure.
On March 13, Reuters, citing a source in Kazakhstan's diplomacy, reported that Tokayev is considering the possibility of running for the position of Secretary-General, as well as the possibility of a second presidential term, but details remain unknown.
According to Kazakh expert Dosym Satpayev, the introduction of the vice president position could allow Tokayev to "appoint a successor in case of his early departure."
The new Constitution, adopted in a referendum on March 15, states that in the event of the president's resignation, his duties will pass to the vice president, and new elections must be held within two months. Tokayev was elected for a seven-year term under the current Constitution on November 20, 2022, and his powers will end in November 2029.
Tokayev's own opinion
In his "address to the people" in September 2025, the President of Kazakhstan proposed reforms in parliament and amendments to the Constitution. He indicated that proposals would be discussed over the course of a year, and a referendum based on these discussions would take place in 2027. In January 2026, Tokayev outlined the main points of the constitutional reform and announced plans to introduce the vice president position.
The discussion of the reform took less time than expected: the final draft of the Constitution was published in February, and the referendum was scheduled for mid-March.
Experts have hypothesized that the accelerated pace of work may indicate preparations for significant changes.
On March 15, the day of the referendum, Tokayev voted in Astana and held a briefing for journalists, during which one reporter asked about a possible connection between the constitutional reform and the upcoming elections and the creation of the vice president position.
Tokayev replied that the vice president position would have its own functions, emphasizing that "the next presidential elections will take place according to the schedule established by the current Constitution," which seemed to dispel rumors about his intention to move to the UN. However, in the video version of his response, this phrase was absent, raising questions about whether it was cut out or simply not spoken at all. Azattyq has sent a request to the broadcasting complex to clarify the circumstances.
At this point, it can be asserted that in the event of early presidential elections, there will be no video recordings of Tokayev that could contradict his words.
Nevertheless, Tokayev has repeatedly stated that he does not plan to move to the UN. In an interview with the newspaper "Ana tili" on January 3, 2025, he emphasized that his experience working in Geneva, where he headed the UN office, is "more than sufficient," and in a conversation with the publication Turkistan in 2026, he noted that he has no "desire to return to work at the UN, despite inquiries from several countries."
Interest in the UN
Some experts believe that Tokayev's actions contradict his statements, as evidenced by the constitutional changes. Analysts suggest that he may still consider the possibility of taking the position of UN Secretary-General as an option for leaving the presidency.
Temur Umarov, a researcher at the Carnegie Center in Berlin, believes that Tokayev may consider the offer to work at the UN to ensure his international security.
“There is an opinion that Kassym-Jomart Kemelevich has always wanted to become the UN Secretary-General. It may be preferable for him to leave Kazakh politics and take this position, ensuring himself international security guarantees,” Umarov stated in an interview with the BBC.
“Leading the UN is more interesting to him than governing Kazakhstan. Tokayev found himself in his position by chance; he is a diplomat by profession and is closer to the international sphere. It should not be forgotten that for young Central Asian countries, such a position is considered very prestigious,” shared the opinion of a Russian expert on Central Asia.
Civil society and human rights defenders in Kazakhstan have repeatedly criticized Tokayev for his actions during the January events of 2022, which resulted in the deaths of at least 238 people. They call for his accountability, including for orders to shoot "to kill without warning." International organizations note the deterioration of the human rights situation in the country, which the Kazakh authorities dispute. During the discussion of the draft Constitution, the OSCE mission stated that alternative voices were being suppressed and the influence of the executive branch was increasing, which weakens the protection of human rights and the system of checks and balances.
According to Central Asia expert Peter Leonard, Tokayev's transition to work at the UN could be a logical step for a leader considering issues of power transition in a region where presidential resignations are often accompanied by problems.
Diplomatic experience and international connections
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, as an experienced diplomat, previously served as Kazakhstan's Minister of Foreign Affairs in the early years of the country's independence. From 2011 to 2013, he also served as Deputy Secretary-General of the UN and headed the office in Geneva.
Tokayev has long raised the issue of the need to modernize the structure of the UN. At the 80th session of the UN General Assembly in September 2025, he stated that "the voices of responsible middle powers should be amplified in the Security Council."
The United Nations is a key platform with high legitimacy at the global level, responsible for resolving international conflicts and upholding international law. The UN Secretary-General is elected for a five-year term with the possibility of re-election twice.
When US President Donald Trump invited Tokayev to the Council of Peace, a new platform for conflict resolution, he agreed. In February 2026, Tokayev participated in a council meeting and stated his readiness to send troops to Gaza as part of an international mission.
On March 19, Trump sent Tokayev an official invitation to participate in the G20 summit in Miami at the end of the year, which could increase his chances for the UN leadership election.
Who could support Tokayev?
Peter Leonard notes that Tokayev's experience in Geneva and his connections with leaders of countries such as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, as well as his friendship with Donald Trump, could form the basis for his support on the international stage.
Ken Moriatsu, editor of Nikkei Asia, reports that Tokayev "definitely likes Trump."
Given his connections with permanent members of the Security Council, Tokayev may count on support when nominating his candidacy.
Kazakh political scientist Viktor Kovtunovsky believes that Russia is actively promoting Tokayev's candidacy.
“It is no secret that Putin is actively involved in the process of selecting the next Secretary-General. He has the motivation to get a reliable UN leader as he is in international isolation,” he writes on Facebook.
Support from France may also be linked to the country's need for uranium, the main producer of which is Kazakhstan.
Journalist Anatoly Ivanov-Vaysskopf emphasizes that Tokayev's knowledge of the French language could enhance his chances. “Knowledge of French is considered critically important, as in all recent elections France has rejected candidates who do not speak this language,” he notes in his article.
Additionally, knowledge of Chinese and support for joint projects with China could contribute to Tokayev's backing from Xi Jinping.
What are the chances of taking the position of UN Secretary-General?
The UN Secretary-General is the highest diplomatic position in the largest international organization. Candidate registration will end in April. Candidates will participate in hearings at the General Assembly, where they will present their plans, engage in debates, and answer questions.
From July to October, 15 members of the Security Council will secretly vote for one candidate, after which he will be presented to the General Assembly. If the candidate does not receive support from the five permanent members, he will not be elected. The General Assembly formally approves the choice, but in practice, it depends on the decision of the permanent members.
“The UN Charter gives the General Assembly the right to appoint the Secretary-General upon the recommendation of the Security Council. In practice, the permanent members with veto power choose the candidate, leaving the 193 members the right to formally approve their choice,” writes Helen Murphy, editor of Devex.
There is an unofficial agreement on the rotation of Secretaries-General among different continents. For example, the current head is António Guterres from Portugal, his predecessor Ban Ki-moon represented Asia, and Kofi Annan represented Africa. Logically, the next should be a representative from Latin America, but the rotational principle is not enshrined in the rules, so candidates can come from other regions.
Who is already vying for the position?
At this point, Tokayev is not included in the list of candidates for the position of UN Secretary-General. The official UN website lists five candidates, each of whom has strong positions. For example, Michelle Bachelet, nominated by Chile and other countries, is a former president of Chile and head of the UN Human Rights Committee. Rafael Grossi, proposed by Argentina, is the head of the IAEA. Other candidates include Rebecca Greenspan, former Vice President of Costa Rica, Macky Sall, former President of Senegal, and Virginia Gamba, who headed the UN Disarmament Office.
Alesha Simkich, who previously worked at the UN and is now the EU ambassador to Kazakhstan, told the Kazakh publication Ulysmedia that the possibility of choosing a woman for the position of Secretary-General is being discussed, as traditionally this position is held by someone who is a former president.
Some experts believe that talks about Tokayev's possible "transition to the UN" could distract from pressing issues.
“It is too early to discuss this. There are mechanisms with the vice president, but I don't think they are created for someone else. We do not know what awaits us in 2029, but the most likely scenario is the stabilization of power and its preservation. Talks about the UN and successors distract from the main issues that the president needs to address,” emphasizes political scientist Dimash Alzhanov.
The article "Will Tokayev be a candidate for the position of UN Secretary-General?" was first published on K-News.
