Causes of the Protests
The main reason for the unrest was the sharp deterioration of the economic situation. The exchange rate of the Iranian rial reached a record low, exceeding 1.4 million rials per dollar by the end of December 2025, while a year earlier it was around 700,000 rials. This negatively affected the purchasing power of citizens and contributed to inflation, which reached 40%, while food prices rose by 72% compared to the previous year. Here are the key factors that exacerbated the crisis:- Currency Crisis. The devaluation of the rial led to the resignation of the head of the Central Bank on December 29 and significantly impacted imported goods and citizens' savings.
- Sanctions and War Consequences. In June 2025, Iran entered a 12-day conflict with Israel, damaging the infrastructure of many cities. In September 2025, the UN reimposed strict sanctions against Tehran, worsening the country's economic isolation.
- Fuel Price Increases. In December, the government reduced fuel subsidies, leading to a sharp rise in gasoline prices, burdening family budgets.
- Chronic Problems. Long-term factors such as high unemployment, corruption, and ineffective governance also contributed to public discontent. Many Iranians blame the authorities for poor economic policies, leading to the sentiment that "the cost of silence is higher than the cost of protest."
Development of the Protests
The protests quickly spread to the streets of Tehran and other cities, and by December 29, reports of demonstrations came from major cities such as Isfahan, Shiraz, and Mashhad. The police attempted to disperse the crowds with tear gas, which only strengthened the protesters' resolve. Initially, economic demands were voiced, such as reducing prices and stabilizing the currency. Taxi drivers complained about the sharp rise in food prices, demanding that authorities control the cost of essential goods.However, soon the protests became political. Anti-government slogans began to emerge in the crowd, directed against the entire regime of the Islamic Republic. Years of accumulated frustration spilled over. Protesters chanted "Death to the dictator!" and demanded a change of power, expressing nostalgia for the monarchy, waving flags from the time of the Shah, and supporting Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah, who lives in exile. Although Pahlavi advocated for a referendum on the form of government, his name became a symbol of protest against the spiritual leaders.
The protests were spontaneous and diverse: participants included lower classes and the middle class experiencing economic hardships, as well as students, women, and representatives of national minorities, including Kurds. Strikes and solidarity actions took place in 45 universities across the country, and entrepreneurs also began to strike, paralyzing commercial life.
Escalation of the Conflict
As the protests expanded, the authorities shifted from containment to brutal suppression. On January 3, 2026, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei labeled the protesters as "rebels" and demanded their suppression. On the same day, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the end of the "period of tolerance" and threatened retribution against the organizers of the unrest. The head of the judiciary ordered the expedited processing of cases against the detained and not to show leniency.Security forces began actively dispersing demonstrations, using batons, tear gas, and firearms. Human rights organizations, such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, documented instances of security forces opening fire on peaceful protesters. In the first week, at least 28 casualties were recorded in 13 cities.
Particularly brutal repression was observed in Kurdish provinces, where security forces used weapons against unarmed people. In the city of Azna, for example, the IRGC opened fire on protesters, killing six people. A similar situation occurred in other cities where authorities were unwilling to concede to the protesters.
The protest movement reached its peak on January 8-9, when opposition leaders called on citizens to take to the streets. In response, the authorities shut down mobile internet and communication across the country. According to the organization NetBlocks, by January 10, Iran was experiencing a total internet blackout. Nevertheless, protesters found ways to communicate: some used the Starlink satellite network.
Despite the blockade, the scale of the protests became known. On the night of January 10, thousands of Iranians took to the streets, chanting slogans against the authorities and lighting bonfires. Protests spread to over 570 settlements across the country.
The authorities' response became increasingly brutal: reports emerged of snipers on rooftops shooting at protesters. "They are killing us – hundreds of bodies are lying in the streets," one protester relayed via satellite communication, reporting a high number of casualties. Medical personnel in overcrowded hospitals confirmed that many injuries were caused by gunfire. Human rights defenders noted that the suppression tactics were unprecedented in their brutality.
Suppression of the Protests
In the second week of January, authorities announced a decrease in protest activity. On January 12, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared full control by security forces. State television broadcast pro-government rallies as evidence of maintaining order. At the same time, authorities blamed external enemies for the outbreak of violence and stated that the protests provided a pretext for U.S. intervention.The Ministry of Interior reported the restoration of order, but as of January 16, the internet remained blocked, preventing independent sources from confirming the authorities' information. Despite the absence of open protests, communication with citizens remained difficult.
Information about casualties remains incomplete. On January 13, Reuters reported that around 2,000 people had died in the protests; however, this figure includes both deceased protesters and security personnel. The human rights group HRANA stated by January 17 that the death toll could exceed 3,090. Some sources claim that actual losses could reach 12,000, based on video recordings from Tehran's morgue.
Additionally, tens of thousands of Iranians were injured and faced persecution. Human rights defenders documented cases of mass injuries and brutal treatment of detainees. Many prisoners are in jails without contact with their families and are subjected to torture. Authorities force families of the deceased to deny information about the causes of death, threatening to ban funerals. Simultaneously, state media show edited "confessions" of arrested protesters.
Iranian authorities intend to severely punish the organizers of the protests. Calls for the death penalty for detainees are heard in mosques, and influential Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami called for retribution against the protesters, accusing them of links to the U.S. and Israel.
