Since 2014, the republic has seen a steady decline in birth rates, leading to the onset of what is referred to as demographic winter. According to forecasts from the Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the number of children of primary school age is expected to decrease by approximately 900,000 over the next five years.
These demographic changes have already begun to affect the activities of universities. In 2025, private universities were able to fill only 75.8 percent of their study places — the lowest level in the past five years.
In some educational institutions, the number of students does not even reach half of the planned figures.
Private universities are the most affected by these changes, as up to 80 percent of their budget is formed from tuition fees.
Analysts warn that over the next decade, some universities may be closed, merged with other institutions, or forced to radically change their operational model.
Similar phenomena of "zombie universities," which lose their main stream of students, have already been observed in Japan and South Korea.
In addition to the demographic decline, other factors are influencing the decrease in the number of applicants, such as reduced employment opportunities after graduation, an increasing interest in short-term professional programs and online education, as well as the youth's desire to enter the labor market more quickly.
Many experts believe that the higher education system in Turkey is on the brink of serious structural changes, and it is the private universities that will need to adapt to the new conditions first.
The Turkish authorities are also considering the possibility of compensating for the reduction in the number of local students by attracting foreign applicants.
