In 2025, 645,000 children were born in the country, while the number of deaths amounted to 651,000, resulting in a natural population decline of 6,000 people. The natural growth rate continues to decrease: in 2020 it was +66,300, and in 2024 it was +17,600.
Experts note that the situation where the number of deaths exceeds the number of births is rare. Except for the two world wars, this has occurred only three times: in 1907, 1911, and 1929, and at that time the decline was temporary.
Sylvie Le Minez, head of the demographic and social research department at Insee, emphasized that this trend may continue in the coming years and even decades. She noted that since the early 2010s, the mortality rate has shown a steady increase and is likely to continue rising until 2040-2050 with the departure of the generation born during the baby boom.
In 2025, the number of deaths increased by 1.5% compared to the previous year. The rise in mortality is linked not only to the aging population but also to external circumstances, such as a severe winter flu epidemic in January and sharp temperature increases in the summer.
Forecasts suggest that by the end of the 2040s, the number of deaths could reach around 800,000 per year.
At the same time, against the backdrop of increasing mortality, birth rates in France continue to decline. Since 2010, when 832,394 births were recorded, there has been a steady decline, which has become more noticeable in recent years.
The total fertility rate (TFR) in 2025 was 1.56 children per woman, one of the lowest figures in a long time. Insee notes that similar values were observed only during World War I.
The National Institute for Demographic Studies (Ined) also points to a significant decrease in the desire of young people under 30 to have children: over the past 20 years, the average desired number of children has decreased by 0.6. At the same time, the number of people wanting to have zero or one child has exceeded the number of those considering having three or more children.
Researchers attribute this to economic instability and new sources of anxiety, such as climate change, crises, and uncertainty about the future.
Despite the negative natural growth, the total population of France continues to grow due to migration. Sylvie Le Minez noted that while natural growth was previously the main factor in population growth, migration balance is now becoming key.
In 2020, the migration balance was 140,000 people, and in 2025 it increased to 176,000, allowing the population to grow by 0.25% even despite the decline in birth rates and the rise in mortality.
The expert emphasized that the majority of migrants are young people, and migration remains an important factor in supporting the economy and demographic situation of the country.
