With the approach of the five-year anniversary of Sadyr Japarov's assumption of the presidency at the end of January 2026, public and political discussions regarding the legitimacy of presidential power and the possible timing of regular or extraordinary elections have once again intensified in Kyrgyzstan. A key factor in these debates has been the difference between two constitutional models, as noted by Doctor of Law, professor, and honored lawyer of Kyrgyzstan Kairat Osmonaliyev.
He reminded that Japarov was elected in January 2021 in accordance with the Constitution adopted in 2016, which established a six-year term of office. However, the new Constitution, effective from May 5, 2021, established a five-year term for the president.
Osmonaliyev pointed out that some experts and political scientists express the opinion that there is a legal collision, questioning the legitimacy of the president's status. "From a legal point of view, this issue is considered settled. According to the Law of the Kyrgyz Republic dated May 5, 2021, No. 59 'On the Implementation of the Constitution of the Kyrgyz Republic', part 1 of article 3 states: 'The President of the Kyrgyz Republic, elected in 2021 for 6 years, exercises powers in accordance with the Constitution. The term of the elected president for 6 years is counted as the first term under this Constitution.' Thus, there are no formal grounds for doubts about the legality of Sadyr Japarov's presidency," he noted.
The professor added that the legality of power does not always coincide with its legitimacy. Legitimacy implies public recognition of power, trust of citizens in it, and agreement with the legality of decisions made, while legality is defined by compliance with laws.
"To date, according to various sociological studies, the current president holds leading positions in public trust ratings, which confirms the presence of both legality and legitimacy. Nevertheless, in the public space, support figures vary from 30-40% to 80% and above, which complicates an objective assessment of the level of agreement, as the methodology of surveys is often not disclosed. As elections approach, the question of legitimacy may be raised more frequently by political opponents of the authorities, which can be used in political struggle. In this regard, experts express the opinion that extraordinary presidential elections would be advisable to eliminate possible doubts and renew the public mandate of trust. From a political logic standpoint, there are justifications for this approach," Osmonaliyev added.
During the conversation, the lawyer also recalled how at the end of 2019 he gifted Japarov the book "Why Nations Fail," written by economists Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson.
"At our next meeting in December 2020, he informed me that he had read this work. How much the ideas of the book have been implemented in policy is a separate question, but the economic measures taken and the growth rates indicate that the country's leadership is paying attention to the institutional factors of development. Nevertheless, several issues are raised in public discussion: rising prices for food and essential goods, controversial reforms in the management of presidential affairs, changes in the driver training system and the elimination of private driving schools, accessibility of housing under the state mortgage program, the ecological situation in Bishkek, transport problems, and the state of freedom of speech and political pluralism. It is also necessary to consider the deterioration of the situation with labor migrants. The unresolved nature of these issues may negatively affect the level of public trust in the medium term," Osmonaliyev noted.
Given the political history of Kyrgyzstan, where electoral campaigns are often accompanied by instability, the question of timely strengthening legitimacy becomes particularly relevant.
"In the coming months, there are no signs of an acute crisis, and therefore some experts consider the possibility of extraordinary elections as a preventive and stabilizing measure. Previously, similar practices were adopted by other leaders in the region: Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2024, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in 2022, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in 2023, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in 2024. In these cases, early elections were used to renew the mandate of trust and strengthen power. The question of the advisability of such a step in Kyrgyzstan remains open and requires a balanced and institutional discussion, free from emotions and political games," Kairat Osmonaliyev concluded.
