According to BZ, Turkey is actively expanding its influence in Central Asia by implementing financial programs, signing defense agreements, and conducting joint military exercises with Turkic countries. However, the author of the article emphasizes that competing with Russia will not be easy.
Turkey is strengthening its position in the region by exporting weapons, implementing infrastructure projects, and developing cultural diplomacy. Nevertheless, Russia remains a serious competitor in this part of the world.
In December 2023, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan presented the "Vision of the Turkic World" initiative, aimed at creating a single digital currency for all Turkic countries. He also expressed his intention to increase trade volume with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan from $16 billion to $100 billion per year.
Erdoğan aims to make Turkey a more prominent player in Central Asia, where Russia and China traditionally dominate. In the 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ankara attempted to establish influence in the former Soviet republics; however, hopes that these countries would turn to their "older brother" did not materialize.
“The main lesson Ankara learned from the 1990s is that its ambitious expectations for integration pushed away the newly formed Central Asian republics,” comments Daria Isachenko, a political scientist at the Center for Turkish Studies (CATS) of the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP), in response to a request from Berliner Zeitung.
However, after the start of Russia's military operation in Ukraine, the situation in Central Asia has changed, and Turkey's geographical distance from the region no longer seems so significant.
Weapons as Key Exports
Western sanctions against Russia are changing the economic landscape in Central Asia. Thousands of Russian companies have relocated to Kazakhstan, and some local firms are circumventing restrictions by exporting banned goods to Russia.
Central Asian exporters, previously dependent on Russia, are now seeking new ways to access international markets. This has revived interest in the Middle Corridor, which connects China to Europe via the Caspian Sea and Turkey. The volume of cargo transportation in this corridor has increased from 530,000 tons in 2021 to 4.5 million tons in 2024.
Currently, weapons are the main export commodity of Turkey to Central Asia. Following the successful use of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones by Azerbaijan in the conflict with Armenia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan have started to procure such drones. Kyrgyzstan has ordered all four types of Turkish drones (Bayraktar TB2, Aksungur, Akıncı, and ANKA), while Kazakhstan has signed a licensing agreement for their production.
Joint ventures are also becoming increasingly common, especially in the construction sector. Over the past five years, the number of Turkish-Uzbek companies in Uzbekistan has tripled to nearly 2,000.
Institutionalization of Foreign Economic Policy
Ankara places great importance on joint organizations in its relations with Central Asia. In June 2024, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan characterized this as the "institutionalization of foreign policy" and highlighted it as one of the priorities.
This primarily concerns the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), established in 2009, through which Turkey intends to promote a common cultural identity in Central Asia. The situation is now significantly simpler than it was 35 years ago. For example, Russians now make up only about 15% of Kazakhstan's population, whereas at the time of the USSR's collapse, their share reached 50%.
In September 2024, at the OTS summit in Bishkek, Turkey initiated the concept of transitioning all member states to a unified Turkish alphabet based on Latin script, which is intended to replace the Cyrillic script used in the region since the Soviet era.
Additionally, in October of this year, Erdoğan signed a decree allowing all foreigners of Turkic origin to work in public and private institutions, except for the armed forces and security agencies.
However, given the differences in mentality and numerous economic problems in Turkey, such initiatives may not yield quick results, as noted in a conversation with Berliner Zeitung by Hakan Aksay, an expert on Ankara's relations with the post-Soviet space. "In the long term, this could lead to an increase in the number of people wishing to move to Turkey from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and other Turkic-speaking countries," he believes.
Military Aspects of Turkey's Relations with Central Asia
At the same time, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev proposed conducting joint military exercises for OTS members at a recent summit in Gabala. Although Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) along with Russia, conducting such exercises no longer seems impossible.
The example of Armenia, which has effectively suspended its participation in the CSTO in recent years, underscores the fragility of this organization. In September 2022, the CSTO took no action to resolve the conflict between two member states on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border, resulting in at least 150 deaths.
Thus, Turkish training programs, especially in the area of special combat training, are becoming particularly attractive to Central Asian countries. Some of them are already participating in multinational exercises primarily conducted by Turkey.
“The elites of Central Asia are wary of the expansionist intentions of Moscow and Beijing. Unlike Russia and China, Turkey does not have such a negative image in this region,” explained Uzbek expert on China and Central Asia Temur Umarov in an interview with Berliner Zeitung.
The search for new formats has also led to Azerbaijan being invited to the Central Asia summit, which will take place in November in Tashkent. This year, Baku has also made progress in relations with Armenia thanks to the mediation of Donald Trump. This creates an opportunity for Turkey to gain direct access to Central Asia through Azerbaijan.
Internal and External Challenges
Despite Turkey's significant successes in Central Asia, the country faces many obstacles on the path to strengthening its influence in the region. Competition with Russia remains serious.
For instance, about 95% of Kazakhstan's oil exports and a similar volume of internet traffic pass through Russia. Additionally, differences in foreign policy continue to hinder the development of relations between Central Asia and Turkey.
In April 2025, all countries in the region signed a joint statement at the first EU-Central Asia summit in Samarkand, supporting the independence of Cyprus and condemning Turkey for the occupation of the northern part of the island.
For Turkey, the only country recognizing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus since 1974, this was a significant diplomatic defeat. "Many in Turkey were convinced that the Turkic-speaking states preferred economic benefits from the European Union to Ankara," says Hakan Aksay, referring to the 12 billion euros offered by the EU to Central Asian countries in Samarkand.
In fact, such a position on the Cyprus issue is not new for the Central Asian republics, explains Temur Umarov. "There are a number of issues on which the countries of the region hold a firm position, including territorial integrity," emphasizes the expert.
Back in June 2022, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, attending the International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg alongside Vladimir Putin, stated that Astana does not recognize the independence of "quasi-state formations such as the LPR and DPR," which broke away from Ukraine. A similar position is applied in Central Asia regarding Northern Cyprus.
Nevertheless, active cooperation with Turkey allows the countries of the region to at least partially counter Russian influence. Ankara increasingly emphasizes cultural and historical ties, as well as specific projects within joint organizations.
“However, even these pan-Turkic platforms primarily serve Turkey to strengthen bilateral relations with the countries of the region,” notes Daria Isachenko. Currently, this is the most effective approach for Ankara in Central Asia.
Source: inosmi.ru
