How might these events affect Central Asia?
On the night of Friday, February 27, Pakistan conducted airstrikes on several cities in Afghanistan, including the capital, Kabul. Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated on social media platform X that tensions between the two neighboring countries have escalated into an "open war" after several months of armed conflict, DW reports.
According to Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, the Pakistan Army targeted sites in Kabul, as well as in the provinces of Kandahar and Paktia. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif emphasized that "our forces are capable of suppressing any aggressive ambitions," adding that the entire nation supports its armed forces.
Last week, Pakistan also carried out nighttime airstrikes, which the Taliban claim resulted in the deaths of at least 18 people, including women and children. Islamabad stated that the strikes were aimed at alleged terrorist camps located near the Afghan border, in response to recent suicide attacks on Pakistani territory.
On February 26, Afghan Taliban reported a "large-scale offensive" on border posts, during which "many" Pakistani soldiers were killed. So far, Pakistani authorities have confirmed the deaths of only two of their servicemen.
Relations between the Taliban government in Afghanistan and Pakistan have significantly deteriorated in recent months. Islamabad accuses the Taliban of inaction regarding armed groups responsible for terrorist attacks on Pakistani territory, while the Taliban deny these accusations.
Conflict between the two countries
In the fall of 2025, Pakistan demanded that Afghanistan take action against the "Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan" (TTP) — a Pakistani Islamist group closely linked to the Afghan Taliban.
In October, two explosions occurred in Kabul, for which the Taliban blamed Islamabad. This provoked return fire from Afghan forces on Pakistani military at the border. In response, the Pakistan Army used heavy artillery, tanks, and drones, and also scrambled fighter jets.
According to the Taliban, these attacks resulted in the deaths of nine Afghan and 58 Pakistani soldiers, as well as the temporary capture of 20 border posts. Pakistani media reported that 23 of their servicemen were killed, and more than 200 "Taliban and associated terrorists" were eliminated, with the capture of 19 Afghan border posts.
Clashes continued until the end of October 2025, when, with the mediation of Qatar and Turkey, the parties agreed to a ceasefire. However, subsequent negotiations did not lead to a peace agreement.
It is important to note that the transition of the conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan into a phase of open military confrontation poses serious risks for both Central Asia (CA) and international security. Experts and analysts have been warning about this for decades.
The main threats include the rise of extremism and terrorism, destabilization of the political situation and the northern border, as well as a "security vacuum" that radical groups, including ISIS-K and IDU, could exploit. Additionally, this creates risks for major economic projects in Central Asian countries, such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, the TAPI gas pipeline, and the CASA-1000 project, and could lead to a new wave of refugees.
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