The attack on Chinese citizens in Afghanistan, carried out by militants from the “Islamic State – Khorasan,” has drawn attention to the reasons behind this event. Analysts point to possible connections with China's policies in Xinjiang and the group's desire to undermine financial flows benefiting the “Taliban,” reports Ozodi.
This month, an explosion occurred at the Lanzhou restaurant located in central Kabul, resulting in the deaths of at least seven people, including a Chinese citizen, and injuring another 13. The “Islamic State – Khorasan” claimed responsibility for this attack, stating that it has “included Chinese citizens in its targets” due to China's policies in Xinjiang, where over a million Uyghurs and other Muslim ethnic groups are held in “re-education camps.”
“Extremists who consider China an enemy of Muslims remain active even under Taliban rule,” asserts Michael Semple, an Afghanistan expert from Queen's University in Belfast. According to him, this forces China to enhance security measures for its citizens.
Chinese nationals have previously been targets of attacks in Afghanistan, including by IS-K, but the recent incident comes against the backdrop of an escalation of attacks on Chinese interests in neighboring Pakistan and Tajikistan. Analysts believe these actions are also aimed at reducing the level of Chinese investment. After the Taliban returned to power in 2021, they began fighting IS-K, viewing it as a threat to their regime.
“By creating an atmosphere of fear, IS-K aims to prevent Chinese companies from investing and doing business in Afghanistan, thereby weakening the Taliban,” believes Lucas Webber, an analyst from the Tech Against Terrorism group, which monitors terrorist activity.
CHINESE CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO FIRES: THE COMPETITION BETWEEN THE TALIBAN AND IS-K
With the imposition of strict sanctions, China has become an important economic and diplomatic partner for the Taliban since their return to power, although Beijing has not officially recognized the Taliban.
This cooperation has made Chinese citizens, including engineers and restaurant owners, prominent symbols of Taliban legitimacy and attractive targets for IS-K, which seeks to demonstrate shortcomings in the Taliban's security claims.
Semple emphasizes that by attacking Chinese citizens, IS-K may be trying to show the Taliban that the group is still capable of conducting successful operations despite efforts to suppress it.
This attack also raises doubts about the Taliban's claims that the “Islamic State” no longer has a presence in Afghanistan.
In April 2024, Zabihullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman, stated in an audio message that IS-K no longer poses a threat in the country.
Sameer Yousafzai, a political commentator, notes that the Taliban's words only partially reflect reality. In his opinion, IS-K does not have “bases on Afghan territory, which limits the frequency of their attacks.”
The IS-K group has been actively operating in Pakistan and Tajikistan, where Chinese citizens have also been targeted. In November, two attacks in Tajikistan, near the Afghan border, resulted in the deaths of five Chinese workers, with another five injured.
Tajik authorities report that the attacks were carried out from Afghan territory, and the Taliban's foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, promised assistance to Dushanbe in investigating these incidents.
After the attacks, a Taliban representative stated that their forces conducted an operation against IS-K militants in the north of the country, near the border with Tajikistan, assuring that the operation was related to the attacks on Chinese workers.
A TARGETED CAMPAIGN AGAINST CHINESE INTERESTS
The IS-K group was founded in 2015 and consists mainly of Pakistani militants dissatisfied with the actions of the Taliban. It later expanded its activities into Afghanistan.
The group has already carried out attacks on Chinese citizens, including an explosion at a Chinese hotel in Kabul in 2022. After the Taliban returned to power, IS-K intensified its recruitment and propaganda activities.
“Before the Taliban came to power, various media associated with IS-K published videos and posters threatening China,” notes Webber, adding that such activity was linked to the Taliban's diplomatic relations with China.
Webber claims that IS-K continues these efforts and is ready to attack Chinese citizens as competition with the Taliban deepens and its ambitions in the region grow.
“The group [IS-K] has already stated its intentions to carry out attacks, and its propaganda unit has issued warnings in Uzbek about possible attacks on Chinese facilities in Central Asia,” reminds Webber. “Cross-border attacks are also likely, as insurgent and criminal groups increasingly target Chinese citizens.”
