In Bangladesh, it has been realized that the country has fallen into a debt trap created by Chinese borrowings. This acknowledgment came from a high-ranking financial official, but specific steps to change the situation are still lacking. Details can be found in an article from the Asian News Post.
Debt Trap: Official Acknowledgment
Bangladesh has officially recognized that it has found itself in a debt trap, and this is not just the opinion of external analysts, but a conclusion made at the level of the authorities. The chairman of the National Revenue Board, M. Abdur Rahman Khan, stated that such a situation is not unexpected. The country is following the path of its South Asian neighbors, such as Sri Lanka, by entering into the Chinese initiative "One Belt, One Road" (BRI) and facing its negative consequences.
Currently, servicing external debt has become the second largest item in Bangladesh's state expenditures. According to data, the ratio of public debt to GDP has risen to over 39%, while in 2017-2018 this figure was about 34%. "We are already in a debt trap," noted the head of the tax authority at a recent seminar. "Ignoring this reality is impossible."
The Problem is Acknowledged, but No Solutions
Despite detailed reports on the critical situation in public financing, high-profile economists and officials effectively admit their inability to find a way out of the current crisis.
Economist Mustafizur Rahman sadly pointed out that previously agriculture and education occupied the second place in budget expenditures after the wage fund, but this has now changed. Financial Secretary M. Khairuzzaman Mojumdar added that this year's budget is smaller than the budget of the previous year for the first time, stating: "A thin person was asked to lose even more weight."
Worrying Figures from the World Bank
The scale of the problem is confirmed by the World Bank's International Debt Report for 2025. Over the past five years, Bangladesh's external debt has increased by 42%. By the end of 2024, the total volume of external borrowings will reach $105 billion, compared to $26 billion in 2010.
Currently, external debt amounts to 192% of the country's export earnings, and servicing payments have risen to 16% of total exports, creating increasing pressure on the budget and balance of payments.
A Scenario Repeating the Sri Lankan Model
Given Bangladesh's growing dependence on Chinese loans, it is not surprising that the country is beginning to resemble Sri Lanka in the early 2020s. After non-targeted borrowings from China, Colombo faced a sovereign default in 2022, leading to an economic crisis.
In contrast to Bangladesh, Pakistan chose a different path, requesting $7 billion from the IMF to service its debts to China, having about $30 billion in debt under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Chinese Loans: Increasing Bangladesh's Obligations
Over more than ten years of participation in BRI projects, Bangladesh expects to receive about $40 billion from China, of which $14 billion is intended for joint projects. In 2022, the country's debt to China was about $4 billion, and then-Finance Minister Mustafa Kamal expressed concern about the risks associated with Chinese lending, pointing to weak borrowing practices and the threat of excessive debt burden.
However, over the next three years, Bangladesh's external debt to China increased to $7 billion, which only intensified economic vulnerability.
From Hasina's Caution to Closer Ties with the Interim Government
Bangladesh officially joined the "One Belt, One Road" initiative in 2016 during the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Dhaka. At that time, the Awami League party was in power, and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was cautious about the terms of Chinese loans, rejecting Beijing's claim that the $3.6 billion bridge over the Padma River is a BRI project, emphasizing that it was financed from Bangladesh's own resources.
The situation changed with the arrival of the interim government led by Mohammed Yunus, who took the position of chief advisor. His first official foreign visit in March 2025 was to China, resulting in Bangladesh receiving $1.2 billion in investments and grants. The total volume of Chinese investments in the country's economy for 2024-2025 exceeded $42 billion. At a meeting with Xi Jinping, Yunus suggested that Chinese companies relocate some of their production to Bangladesh.
China Expands Political Contacts
Beijing is not limiting its cooperation only to the interim government, recognizing its temporary nature. China is actively establishing contacts with various political forces in Bangladesh, including the Jamaat-e-Islami party, which is a fundamentalist and pro-Pakistani organization and has never criticized Beijing for its policies against the Uyghurs.
In December 2024, leaders of Islamic political movements in Bangladesh, led by the deputy amir of Jamaat, Said Abdullah Muhammad Taher, visited China at the invitation of the Communist Party of China. In September 2024, Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen visited the Jamaat office in Dhaka, becoming the first foreign diplomat to visit this organization since 2010. In July 2025, the Chinese embassy held a reception for leaders of Islamic parties, and in September, a delegation from the Chinese Institute of International Relations met with the leadership of Jamaat-e-Islami.
Geopolitics Under the Guise of Infrastructure Projects
The Chinese BRI initiative is increasingly being used to strengthen its strategic positions in participating countries. It is not surprising that Islamic organizations in Bangladesh have begun to actively advocate for increased Chinese investments. On October 19 of this year, the student wing of Jamaat - Islami Chhatra Shibir - held a mass rally at Chittagong University, demanding that the interim government accept China's proposal for comprehensive management and restoration of the Teesta River.
The Teesta project is located in northern Bangladesh near the strategically important Siliguri Corridor in northeastern India. China is interested in strengthening its influence in this area as part of a long-term strategy to access the Bay of Bengal. In this context, Beijing offered Dhaka a loan of $336 million for the development of the Mongla port. There are suggestions that the Chittagong port could become a key element of China's "string of pearls" in the Indian Ocean.
As noted in an article from the International Journal of Applied Research and Sustainable Sciences, prepared by researchers from Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Science and Technology University, "Chinese investments have accelerated infrastructure development, but at the same time increased Bangladesh's debt burden and dependence on China."
The strategic placement of these investments indicates possible geopolitical motives behind Chinese financing.
The Price Dhaka Pays
Thus, Bangladesh continues to pay the price for accepting Chinese loans, facing rising debt, strategic vulnerability, and limitations on its ability to make independent choices. However, despite the experiences of its neighbors and its own alarming indicators, Dhaka seems reluctant to learn lessons from what is happening.
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