National Bank: Forecasting the Further Price Dynamics of Fuels and Lubricants is Difficult Due to High Uncertainty in External Markets

Евгения Комарова Economy
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- On the air of the radio, the head of the monetary policy department of the National Bank, Ainura Mambetkul kyzy, stated that forecasting prices for fuel and lubricants in Kyrgyzstan is becoming more difficult due to the unstable situation in external markets.

She reminded that last year there was an increase in fuel prices in the domestic market.

“Since August of last year, prices for fuel and lubricants began to rise due to changes in conditions in external markets. Kyrgyzstan depends on fuel imports, and therefore fluctuations in world prices directly affect our market,” she explained.

However, as Mambetkul kyzy added, the stability of the exchange rate has helped mitigate the negative consequences for the population's budget.

Since the beginning of this year, a reverse trend has been recorded.

“We have observed a decrease in fuel prices since the beginning of the year. It is important to consider seasonal fluctuations — traditionally, during the spring and autumn periods, during fieldwork, the demand for fuel increases,” she noted.

She also mentioned that the drop in fuel prices at the beginning of the year is a result of measures taken by the Cabinet of Ministers, with which the National Bank actively collaborates.

At the same time, Mambetkul kyzy emphasized that future price movements will largely depend on the international situation and factors in global markets.

“External markets are demonstrating mixed trends, making it difficult to predict fuel prices. However, the National Bank has the necessary tools to smooth out sharp price fluctuations if needed,” she added.

Mambetkul kyzy also noted that a significant portion of the goods in the consumer basket of the population of Kyrgyzstan is imported.

In her opinion, under such conditions, the stability of the domestic currency market plays an important role in mitigating price shocks.

“Over the past two years, despite the flexibility of the exchange rate, it has remained quite stable, which helps to curb the rise in prices for imported goods,” concluded the representative of the National Bank.
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